"Many analysts and pundits have declared a recession in the US for months now.."
Pundits and analysts are no smarter than the average guy on this forum. Most are just semi-literate shmucks with opinions, who happen to like the spotlight, and can shamelessly spew off while never being held accountable for their predictions. The best thing one can do is turn off the noise (CNBC, BNN etc.), dig up the facts, then sit in a quiet room and think for your self. You'd be surprised how far that will get you.