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RINO International Corporation Message Board

  • warrlock2001 warrlock2001 Dec 1, 2010 5:14 PM Flag

    Cajolumael

    I've been reading your posts from time to time while checking in to see if there is any useful news out. You seem to appreciate the real gravity of the situation and I think in your mind understand the probabilities. I realize that you have been left holding onto this much longer than in retrospect you would have preferred and I sympathize.

    I trade technically, but I've never encountered a significant delay in trading activity while evaluating probable expectations in my analysis. At present I can only guess, just like everyone else, but my hunch is that, the longer this stays halted, the greater the probability that this will see some anxious short covering shortly after opening. I assume this based on the option skew, combined short interest and of course, technically, this is very oversold. Now, I don't know what your average cost is, but I am sure you are just as anxious to get out with as much back as possible in order to move past this questionable company. Lets face it, investor confidence has been shaken and even with a temporary short squeeze, once resistance has been met, this will most likely resume the downtrend for quite some time.
    Given where this currently sits, the moving averages are still on a daily declining slope, but should still provide an indication on where resistance will be met with new selling, if this resumed trading this week. The first resistance right now is approximately $8.30. (Upper slope of 30 day channel and I would presume to be intraday resistance) This will change over time, but right now that's where it sits.
    The next resistance, if this continues, will be around $9.58 - $9.90, although I can't see that being violated. If for some unforeseen, miraculous fundamental reason this does break that resistance, then this will come to a dead stop somewhere between $11.65 and $11.95, but I seriously doubt that it will trade that high for a long, long time. Again that's just my take based on where it is today. This will need re-evaluation, the longer it stays halted and the resistance averages will continue to decline.

    Can't tell you what to do, but if it were me, I'd be looking for an exit and be more than happy to move on with what you're able to salvage. Good luck and I hope you get a few points back.

    On the downside, this is looking for a new support level and the bottom of the 30 day channel is about .89 cents, but will probably rest around $4.29 - $3.15 before proceeding further down.

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    • This ride is not about charts or technicals. It's about an independent audit confirming NAV and net income takes care of itself as ROI on assets. We will know that answer 1 minute after the report is issued. Trading will not resume until that time. Absent grand larceny, no analysis I can iterate on the financials deflates NAV by a significant factor. I agree with you. that the longer we stay halted the more nervous the shorts get. I continue to maintain that any short <$10 is far from a sure thing simply because there will a paucity of sellers to provide cover.

    • warrlock,
      Thanks for your kind comments.
      My thought process is that if the news are really bad then I will loose it all. C'est la vie
      If the news are really good then a short squeeze will put me in a very good position.
      If the news are in between then I think eventually RINO will me back to a profitable stage. How soon will depend on how close it is to one of the extremes.
      In other words I intend to hold. I have accepted and made peace with the possibility of loosing everything. Now just wait, like everyone else, and hope for the best.

    • nice try. You are COMPLETELY ignoring the fact that there is a JOOOOGE number of naked shorts that will have to be filled and from a teeny tiiiny float. This fact alone will drive the PPS to $20 albeit in a very short term. But all you need is an hour or two or three in which the squeeze shoots past $20 for the damage to be done ala margin calls on all the foolish shorts that decided to exercise their PUTS.

      • 3 Replies to nmbr1stckpckr
      • What would happen if all longs had a high GTC order in for their shares, say $50, and shorts were forced to cover ? Answer : They'd pay $50 to cover. Of course all longs wouldn't hang tough and cooperate but if many did then there might still be some fireworks.

      • You are on bad drugs JOOOOGE. There is way too much supply above $12.00 for this to ever violate the 50 day EMA in one day. Not gonna happen. This is gonna stop dead, most likely where it gapped down. And that's the best case scenario. If the company fails to satisfy listing requirements, all bets are off and you can forget about a short squeeze. I'm not sweating my $12.50 PUTs. I never use margin, so it's not costing me anything to wait for the open.

      • The shorts only have to wait for the average holder to sell at any price since RINO is looking as closure, its accountants, board and executives at criminal prosecution. I understand that in China, the death penalty is often carried out, even for economic crimes. Perhaps Wall Street could learn from the Communist Capitalists (that's what I call present day China political structure).

 
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