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Louisiana-Pacific Corp. Message Board

  • The hourly chart does not have the first wave
    going to 97 1/2. On the hourly 97 1/2 is not touched.


    The hourly has the first wave ending at either 97.625
    or 97.81, it can be counted either way. If one goes
    by the hourly rather than the daily those would be
    the key prices the stock should not go above before
    heading further south.

    The stock could go above
    these prices and go south but the best probability
    suggests otherwise.

    This topic is deleted.
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    • with no cards showing, the probability of filling
      a flush is 9/47. You already have four of one suit,
      leaving 9 possible winners and there are 47 unknown cards
      because you can account for 5 five cards out of the 52
      card deck.

    • I understand youre coments and they could occur.

      Please take a look a my ? a few posts ago. I am very seriously considering a position and would like your input.

      thx.

    • Given what has happened price wise in the market,
      the scenario outlined in the previous post is
      perfectly normal. That scenario has occurred every time in
      history any market has run up like this. Every
      time.

      Retirement money going into the market is not determining
      the direction of the market. Huge amounts of
      retirement money are going in because the market is going
      up. New money is attracted to rising prices like a
      bee is attracted to honey.

      Another way of
      putting it would be to ask, is the market going up
      because huge amounts of retirement money are going in?
      Or, are huge amounts of retirement money going in
      because the market is going up?

      Granted, the huge
      influx of retirement money may be accentuating the rise
      in prices, but it is not causing the direction to be
      up, and will not prevent the market from turning
      down.

      Does it not bother anyone that in reality the
      financial markets are a place of real risk, and to have so
      much retirement money in a place of real risk is
      dangerous to put it mildly?


      How many people who
      are in the market now in one way or another, 10, 15,
      or 20 years ago(maybe 5) would not have touched the
      market with a ten foot pole because the market was too
      dangerous. They are only in the market now because it has
      gone up so much and the risk does not seem to be
      anything to be overly concerned about.Pschologically,
      dramatically rising prices have told people there is nothing
      to really worry about. That is the perception as I
      read it, but that is not the reality.

      If this
      market does not head south big time in the not too
      distant future it will be the first time in history a
      market has not done so after a run up like this. That is
      fairly compelling odds. But yet, those odds are
      basically being ignored, which is typical at or near market
      peaks. To have all this retirement money in a place
      where real history tells us that the probability of
      success is currently higher than 99-1 against the
      investor using the general averages as a barometer is
      absolutely nuts.

      How many people would take even 10%
      of their retirement money and enter a draw poker
      game where they had to draw one card to get the final
      card to fill a flush? The probability there is only
      4-1 against you. Most people would say no way, that
      is ridiculous and too risky. But yet all this
      retirement money is in the market where the probability is
      extremely high that the amount of money currently there
      will drop considerably in the years to come before the
      value goes back up. For those who do not mind their
      retirement money dropping in value by at least 50%(and
      probably more) and then wait 5,10, or 15 years just to
      break even again this does not apply. I will not try to
      figure it out.

    • Perceptions about the market are useless when
      401K money is being poured in at increasingly higher
      rates. Your scenario has doomsday around the corner, but
      401k money has just now started to make an impact. 20
      years ago there was almost no money from 401k's, 10
      years ago the movement was on. And now more and more
      company's and more and more money is being fed into the
      market, maybe the boomers are starting to age but their
      money and the money of their offspring is going into
      the stockmarket. Corrections will occur, but the
      trend is up for the foreseeable future.

    • Putting aside fundamental or technical analysis
      the financial markets anticipate events ahead of
      time. For example, if it is known or believed a company
      will improve, that improvement will be reflected in
      the price of the stock before it occurs. When the
      actual event of the improvement of the company happens
      that is the time to sell assuming no more dramatic
      improvements are anticipated.

      Right now there is tons
      and tons of money in the market(individual
      stocks/mutual funds) from people who plan to use that money for
      retirement.

      The general psychology seems to be I'll
      just leave it there, and me and everyone else will
      just pull it out of the market as we need it and
      everyone will live happily ever after.

      The
      financial markets don't work like that. The event of huge
      amounts of money being pulled out of the market for
      retirement will be factored into the price of stocks ahead
      of time.

      The plain truth is many(and I mean
      many) of those who wait for their retirement, or close
      to it, to pull out or semi pull out are going to get
      slaughtered.

      This market is extremely dangerous. The risk in the
      financial markets has never been higher in the entire
      history of this country.

      The point is simple. For
      those who are going to hold, it matters not whether the
      market peaks at around 11,000 or 15,0000 because they
      won't sell anyway. Those in that camp are going to get
      slaughtered.

      Everyone seems to think they will be able to anticipate
      ahead of time and get out before the big downfall. It
      will not happen that way.

      Many of the "new
      economy" stocks have already, in my opinion, discounted
      the hereafter. They may go up some more, they may
      not. The risk is out of this world.

      Whether
      the market will peak this year, next year, or a few
      years from now, I don't know. I do know the risk in the
      general markets is as high as it has ever
      been.

      When the bloodbath does occur, it is going to be the
      bloodbath of all bloodbaths.

    • Hope no one was hurt badly.

    • 6 months. Any the hurt guys had to be flown to Salt Lake City with 1st and 2nd degree burns.

    • bow hunter35 I understand two guys were burned,to what degree I don't know. I did
      not hear how long they would be down. Let's
      just hope the guy's were not hurt to badly.

    • Can someone give me the details on the accident
      at Saratoga? I heard you will be down for 6 months.
      How are the guys that got hurt? Also was a fire at
      Silsebee TX plant. How is that 10-10-20 or 5-5-10 or
      whatever it is working?? Is anyone else out there having
      to do their arm flapping and head rolling every
      morning?

    • The general market should be at or very close to
      some kind of top. Whether the drop will be shallow or
      deep I don't know. It should be heading south
      soon.

      The technical indicators are at levels which indicate
      a top is close at hand. The Elliott wave can be
      counted as being at or near a top.

      The problem is
      this latest advance can be counted in a bearish way
      which would mean a larger drop. But it can also be
      counted in a bullish way which would indicate a shallower
      drop.

      This could be the drop(if it occurs) from which LPX
      will have a good rally from.

      I've been trying
      to get my crystal ball to work better. I've shined
      it. I've put polish on it. I even talked to it, but
      it wouldn't answer back. I suspect it may be
      tempermental.

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LPX
18.35+0.17(+0.94%)May 22 4:04 PMEDT