The hourly chart does not have the first wave
going to 97 1/2. On the hourly 97 1/2 is not touched.
The hourly has the first wave ending at either 97.625
or 97.81, it can be counted either way. If one goes
by the hourly rather than the daily those would be
the key prices the stock should not go above before
heading further south.
The stock could go above
these prices and go south but the best probability
with no cards showing, the probability of filling
a flush is 9/47. You already have four of one suit,
leaving 9 possible winners and there are 47 unknown cards
because you can account for 5 five cards out of the 52
Given what has happened price wise in the market,
the scenario outlined in the previous post is
perfectly normal. That scenario has occurred every time in
history any market has run up like this. Every
Retirement money going into the market is not determining
the direction of the market. Huge amounts of
retirement money are going in because the market is going
up. New money is attracted to rising prices like a
bee is attracted to honey.
Another way of
putting it would be to ask, is the market going up
because huge amounts of retirement money are going in?
Or, are huge amounts of retirement money going in
because the market is going up?
Granted, the huge
influx of retirement money may be accentuating the rise
in prices, but it is not causing the direction to be
up, and will not prevent the market from turning
Does it not bother anyone that in reality the
financial markets are a place of real risk, and to have so
much retirement money in a place of real risk is
dangerous to put it mildly?
How many people who
are in the market now in one way or another, 10, 15,
or 20 years ago(maybe 5) would not have touched the
market with a ten foot pole because the market was too
dangerous. They are only in the market now because it has
gone up so much and the risk does not seem to be
anything to be overly concerned about.Pschologically,
dramatically rising prices have told people there is nothing
to really worry about. That is the perception as I
read it, but that is not the reality.
market does not head south big time in the not too
distant future it will be the first time in history a
market has not done so after a run up like this. That is
fairly compelling odds. But yet, those odds are
basically being ignored, which is typical at or near market
peaks. To have all this retirement money in a place
where real history tells us that the probability of
success is currently higher than 99-1 against the
investor using the general averages as a barometer is
How many people would take even 10%
of their retirement money and enter a draw poker
game where they had to draw one card to get the final
card to fill a flush? The probability there is only
4-1 against you. Most people would say no way, that
is ridiculous and too risky. But yet all this
retirement money is in the market where the probability is
extremely high that the amount of money currently there
will drop considerably in the years to come before the
value goes back up. For those who do not mind their
retirement money dropping in value by at least 50%(and
probably more) and then wait 5,10, or 15 years just to
break even again this does not apply. I will not try to
figure it out.
Perceptions about the market are useless when
401K money is being poured in at increasingly higher
rates. Your scenario has doomsday around the corner, but
401k money has just now started to make an impact. 20
years ago there was almost no money from 401k's, 10
years ago the movement was on. And now more and more
company's and more and more money is being fed into the
market, maybe the boomers are starting to age but their
money and the money of their offspring is going into
the stockmarket. Corrections will occur, but the
trend is up for the foreseeable future.
Putting aside fundamental or technical analysis
the financial markets anticipate events ahead of
time. For example, if it is known or believed a company
will improve, that improvement will be reflected in
the price of the stock before it occurs. When the
actual event of the improvement of the company happens
that is the time to sell assuming no more dramatic
improvements are anticipated.
Right now there is tons
and tons of money in the market(individual
stocks/mutual funds) from people who plan to use that money for
The general psychology seems to be I'll
just leave it there, and me and everyone else will
just pull it out of the market as we need it and
everyone will live happily ever after.
financial markets don't work like that. The event of huge
amounts of money being pulled out of the market for
retirement will be factored into the price of stocks ahead
The plain truth is many(and I mean
many) of those who wait for their retirement, or close
to it, to pull out or semi pull out are going to get
This market is extremely dangerous. The risk in the
financial markets has never been higher in the entire
history of this country.
The point is simple. For
those who are going to hold, it matters not whether the
market peaks at around 11,000 or 15,0000 because they
won't sell anyway. Those in that camp are going to get
Everyone seems to think they will be able to anticipate
ahead of time and get out before the big downfall. It
will not happen that way.
Many of the "new
economy" stocks have already, in my opinion, discounted
the hereafter. They may go up some more, they may
not. The risk is out of this world.
the market will peak this year, next year, or a few
years from now, I don't know. I do know the risk in the
general markets is as high as it has ever
When the bloodbath does occur, it is going to be the
bloodbath of all bloodbaths.
Can someone give me the details on the accident
at Saratoga? I heard you will be down for 6 months.
How are the guys that got hurt? Also was a fire at
Silsebee TX plant. How is that 10-10-20 or 5-5-10 or
whatever it is working?? Is anyone else out there having
to do their arm flapping and head rolling every
The general market should be at or very close to
some kind of top. Whether the drop will be shallow or
deep I don't know. It should be heading south
The technical indicators are at levels which indicate
a top is close at hand. The Elliott wave can be
counted as being at or near a top.
The problem is
this latest advance can be counted in a bearish way
which would mean a larger drop. But it can also be
counted in a bullish way which would indicate a shallower
This could be the drop(if it occurs) from which LPX
will have a good rally from.
I've been trying
to get my crystal ball to work better. I've shined
it. I've put polish on it. I even talked to it, but
it wouldn't answer back. I suspect it may be