Market is going to look through OSB short-term price moves. This stock will peak long before OSB prices peak as people will want exposure to housing stocks as this market will be much stronger tha most people think in 2011/2012. LPX is breakeven at 600K starts and the last company standing. When this thing changes, it will be a historic move.
i say it will be a long long time before we ever see pricing like 04/05. i could be wrong, but i see nothing on the horizon giving a buy signal. of course the stock and the board are decoupled as far as trading is concerned as indicated by the current price. i have been saying this for 2 years now, and though there will be blips and mill manipulation, it is basically weak in general for building products and will be for a while longer.
I'm not buying the massive move up on this stock from an improved housing market. This stock wasn't all that great during the record setting years in 2004 - 2006. And IF housing improves it will still be a mere shadow of those years. I think this stock has already priced in some of the expected housing improvement but weather has basically taken 1/12 of the year off the books already. You're going to need a huge rally in starts to catch up. BTW - Last company standing??? Seriously???
I hope you are right that the 2011/2012 market will be much stronger, and that LPX will breakeven at 600m starts. However, I have my doubts that either will occur. I agree that WHEN building products markets do start to improve, the move upward in housing related stocks will be fast and will be huge. Many will be left standing on the dock when this ship sails.
Now may be a good time to make some small purchases of these stocks or add to current positions. You may have to give them a year or more to come in, but you will be well rewarded for your patience.