I don't have a clue what t-bills have returned
this year but the few investments that I have are up
26% so far this year. I'm not looking for a fast
buck, and have mulled over LPX and GP to add to my
portfolio for at least 4 months and cannot seem to find a
good reason to buy. And if you ever have the reason to
go to the GP board, they have the three stooges
posting every 15 minutes why it is a steal, can't go
lower, a can't miss. But with interest rates where they
are and lumber prices in the ditch, I will keek
Was your reply on or off topic? Guess it was
supposed to be ON given that you did not put your
trademark OT in the subject line.
I am not the least
bit ashamed of any of my attempts to get you on topic
and curb your off-topic mutterings. I know I have
failed miserably for the reasons I have mentioned before
about your need for attention and your expectation that
this is a good place to get it.
Happy to have
procided you with more. Hope it helps whatever portion of
your psyche needs it.
After telling falsehood after falsehood, you
simply continue telling falsehood after
People who have credibility do not continue time after
time to make false assumptions as you have done. They
realize and admit they made a mistake, (sometimes they
even apologize) and stop the falsehoods.
not going to waste my time responding to this any
further other than the following.
I did not own
the stock at 15, I tried to short it and missed the
fill by one tick. I did not bother with it again until
recently, where I have been in and out twice buying under
twelve and then selling at a profit both times because I
think the stock has not bottomed yet. If I am wrong,
then I am wrong.
Your post is littered with
other falsehoods as well.
To use your word, as
far as "judging" you is concerned I leave that to
each individual to figure it out.
Tubo has always been friction causing
inefficiency on this board. 90% of his posts are off-topic
(sometimes just musings to himself for crying out loud). I
had hoped we could just ignore him from now on, but
he is too prevalent and incites too many people to
allow that to happen I guess. For all his claims of
consideration, he has stopped even putting OT in his topics.
Therefore, I must conclude he thinks anything he has to say
is on-topic. Lord knows, he can stretch the bounds
of things to think to say.
If you want to
judge him and his posts for what they are, then ask
yourself why, with all of his "technical" indicators that
he puts forth as "lessons" for us under educated
investors did he not sell at $15 and instead now sold at
Hopefully, now that he has sold, we
can be rid of him for awhile and get back to actually
talking about LPX.
Nobody makes money every week on investments, but
when I start giving advice, and before I put my money
down, I try to know the industry ( I work in his one).
I don't have to go to the WY board to ask what pulp
is, or how it is sold. If you stayed with a product
that you had some knowledge of and stayed away from
those that you have no knowledge of maybe you could
make money "most" weeks in this market. Sincerely
yours, the next "warren buffett".
yes I make money every week, but punching that
time clock is getting old. As far as making money in
the stock market every week, well maybe I had a
couple too many when I said that, but I've been doing
pretty good. I own stock in just a few companies
outright, and they're doing great and the funds I'm in are
doing OK. I don't own stock in LP or GP but have been
looking at both for a while and waiting for that great
"wave" to jump on and ride to the shore.
week???? Are you sure? Your mark to market total
account equity increased EVERY week? For how long? Not
one losing week? That performance puts Warren Buffett
and Peter Lynch to shame! It also defies credulity.
I just looked at the monthly chart of LPX going
back to 1973 when the stock began trading. I saw
something I had not seen before.
For an investor it
could be paradise, but for a trader it is a
In a nutshell the stock
could be on the verge of 2-3 year rally at least. The
stock under this interpretation of Elliott would carry
back to at least the 20's and possibly to new all time
Under Elliott a bull market move advances in 5 waves
and the 4th wave(a corrective wave down) does not go
below the top of the first wave the vast majority of
the time. the 2nd wave is also a corrective wave
The first wave under this count peaked in 1983 at
$10.809. LPX would now be completing the 4th wave, which
would have begun in 1994, and so far the low is 10.812.
LPX does have the tendency where the fourth wave, on
short term charts as well, comes right down to the top
of the first wave. Whereas other stocks will have
the tendency to stay well above the top of the first
wave in their 4th wave corrections.
For a short
term trader, the short term charts are very iffy at
this point. Many short term traders are probably out
of the stock right now because the risk level on a
short term basis has not cleared up. Short term
outlooks do and can change rapidly. That is the nature of
short term trading. From my perspective, hopefully the
short term charts will soon say the risk level is
cleared up, before the stock vaults out of here.
Otherwise I may very well miss the move out of here,
assuming there is one.
Back to the subject line of
the post. An investor may very well buy some LPX at
this point, and leave some capital aside, so if the
stock does drop some more they can buy some more. The
worst case scenario I see for the stock is 7. I don't
think it will go that low, but none the less it is a
possibility under Elliott even if the probability of that
occurring is low.
Also an investor does not mind
holding the stock for a few months if not longer if
things do not pan out well right away whereas the short
term trader does mind.
Some might say, why
don't you just buy some right now and take a chance.
That may very well be the right thing to do in this
case, except Wall Street is littered with those who
have bought exactly in that manner and have watched
their stock go down dramatically.
One must have
a plan that works and have the discipline to stick
with it, whatever the components of the plan may
For myself, the plan I use works, but in this case
having the discipline to stick with it may cause me to
miss a nice move in LPX. If that happens, there will
be plenty of other opportunities. But hopefully, and
with God's help I will not miss the move in
Should be an interesting week coming up.
He does seem intelligent and opinionated and I
too probably wouldn't visit this board if it weren't
for the spirited discussuions. But think about it if
there were some reliable pattern to a stocks price it
could easily be mapped on a computer program and sold
for for a kings ransom, because even the stock
brokers I deal with are using educated guesses and
sweetheart deals to steer investors into a certain stock. My
point is an intelligent individuual wouldn't need these
"self help" gimmicks to make money in the stock market.
I'm making money every week and use only my simple
understanding of the markets and which sectors should prosper
and which shouldn't. I predicted the Nasdaq meltdown
was coming and stayed away from it not for
valuations, but esculating valuations (stock prices never go
straight up indefinitely), and they didn't, and you don't
need to be a rocket scientist or have an instruction
book to know that.