touched the 52-week low today. if it breaks, where the share price is going to find support? book value at Dec 31 2012 was about 1.8/share. will that be the next support level as there is nothing new and exciting?
hopefully we bounce from here, but I doubt -- there are still too many optimist hoping for soon-to-come buyout... (and giving tumbs down to anybody who doesn't agree with them. :-) )
"but I doubt -- there are still too many optimist hoping for soon-to-come buyout"
Bottom line is that both Icahn and Klarman own a truckload of shares. They were buying at higher prices. The stock is down over 15% since the special dividend was paid and now trading at 15 year lows. Let's think for a moment - does it really deserve to be trading where it is? Buyout or no buyout?
I think the stock is a screaming bargain right now, and an even bigger one should it go lower.
Folks can disagree, but lately, Icahn has not been on the short end of any situations.
Assuming no buyout, let's look at what the nominal sales and expenses are going forward. We'll have maybe $40 million/year sales and minimal expenses - correct? No more one time expenses, no R&D, small amount of SG&A. Figure $10 million/year in taxes - so let's just say bottom line is a nice round $20 million/year. That gives us roughly 45 cents/share profit and with stock price at $4 we're looking at a PE of 9.
A 9 PE is maybe 2 or 3 times too low for this company. It is net cash positive almost $2/share.
Hey, I'm really not going to mind picking up shares at lower prices - bring it on. Shorts eventually need to cover, and there are still over 2 million shares short = 10+ days of volume.
Exactly why I hold this stock. And I can't understand why there isn't more interest supporting a healthier evaluation...
Oh, well, that's where one makes money, when the value is not generally acknowledged...
you seem very knowledgeble: Nov 2008 the shares were at the 3 dollar level and this was before the divident. I hold shares of this stock since 2003 for the reasons you stated and would love to get back to 2003 prices, however, reality check is that there is nothing really exciting at the moment except good enthusiasm.