Grateful to you for posting all these data, billy, and providing color and conspiracy theory, etc., but I am none the wiser about the BASIC contradiction, ie. between so many savvy large funds and investors APPARENTLY continuing to hold large qtys of stock, and the (APPARENTLY) nonsensically low PPS!
The PPS has tanked ever so gently, ever since the start of the year, APPARENTLY as people lost patience with and faith in the BO "talks". I'm sure the Omontys recall (late Feb) should have done us no good, but I see no SHARP discontinuity, just the never-ending decline.
When the BO was relinquished there was an immediate and further decisive fall, and as news of the IP theft trickled, grudgingly, out there was another leg down. And PPS is APPARENTLY STILL trickling down, with up days few and far between.
I don't do Level II, so no idea whether the 2xxK trades you annotate are significant (ie. unusual) in the way you hypothesize, but it is titillating, like all your material.
I'm sure it will all become clear just how and why and by whom we were swindled, sometime after it is too late to do much about it.
I only have one (speculative) positive thing to contribute to all this. On another board (QCOR), a fellow everyone trusts (almost venerates) has recently come out with what is apparently an insider tip TO THE EFFECT THAT there will soon be signifcant news in the AFFY/Omontys space (PRESUMABLY that Takeda has found the cause of the adverse reactions, and it's NOT fatal to AFFY/Omontys). He was advising everyone to buy AFFY. Now, while I would never do such a hopeless thing, I nevertheless note that our Omontys royalties may NOT be as dead as we had thought (I remind you that AFFY sold the operations and revenue-rights to Takeda for milestones and royalties).
PPS 2.2 The Steamroller theory, depress pps, discourage buying and selling during Belrose deal, keep it out of the news and quite, until its old news
Taking 2.1 a little future:
Apr 22, 238K warchest is sent to third party (ws boutique, experts, no trace to order placer)
Apr 23 Lazard review PR,
Apr 24 some selling, and some buying, thrid party starts the steamroller, establish pps so low.
majority outsiders big and small don't know what to make of it, but mid sized players know stock worth at least $4.50, don't sell.
Apr 29 day before Belrose deal signed, some in the know buy $4.50 for $3.30 but don't go crazie
May 1, news leaks, some selling and buying, third party puts the hammer down harder
May 6, news hits, IP worthless, market reaction, virtually nothing, a little selling and buying
May 10, no news of consequence
May 14, foot off the gas in the steam roller, warchest with pickups sent back.
again, this is a brainstorm, shoot at it, add, subtract, altneratives welcomed
PPS 2.1 Make comments to the top level, this is meant to be brainstorming so don't be affraid to try out ideas (no alien invasions, or sales pitches, pls):
e.g., notice how the how on the day of the 8K, obviously news of disastorous proportions, IP worthless basically, pps actually closes up, vol is below average, what?
My take: steamrollng has price so low no one will sell, and certainly no one would buy. Why not encourage selling? Well if you don't really want to accumulate more shares why encourage selling, and if there were a big sell off it might attract a lot of news and analysis, why do that!