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JPMorgan Chase & Co. Message Board

  • jk_shaughnessy jk_shaughnessy Oct 10, 2002 9:47 AM Flag

    First-Time Jobless Claims UP 40,000!

    Yes, you read that right. First-time jobless claims jumped 40,000 last week. This is the difference between the seasonally-adjusted figures (which are in this morning's sunny news stories) and the ACTUAL numbers.

    Here is the difference, from last week to this week:

    Seasonally-adjusted... 424,000--->384,000.
    Actual claims............ 319,000--->361,000.

    Take a look for yourself:

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    • JK, good catch!

      "...Jade Zelnik, the chief economist at Greenwich Capital Markets Inc. in Greenwich, Connecticut, said the revision of the prior week's total ``continues to indicate a deterioration in labor market conditions relative to earlier in the summer.''

      She and other economists said the Labor Department's adjustments to account for seasonal fluctuations distorted the figures. Next week's statistics may be unreliable for the same reason, Zelnik said, and claims may rise reflecting the West Coast port shutdown..."

      In addition...

      "...from the previously reported 417,000 for the week before, based on the median of 30 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. Last week's total was revised up to 424,000..."

      The so-called 40K reduction, compared against an upwardly revised figure -- once again this game is played.

    • Very interesting data. There was, of course, a bounce in jobless claims in the weeks after 9/11/01, and the seasonal adjustment is skewed to that number. The unadjusted claims number tells the real story, claims up nearly 42,000.

    • I think we need to stick with an apples
      vs. apples and oranges vs. oranges approach

      If we're going to go with the seasonally
      adjusted figures, then let's go with that.

      You can't go out and start taking in
      and out seasonal adjustments.

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