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JPMorgan Chase & Co. Message Board

  • johnmusky johnmusky Apr 8, 1998 10:16 AM Flag

    Earnings as I said will be bad

    The scary thing is that we havn't been warned. This could be real messy.

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    • GDT is bigger than AVEI but profit margin, ROE and cash position is weaker. Actually, it sounds like a mixed bag financially. If that is arrogant, then it is arrogant to draw conclusions from the whole of aggregate info.

      JPM is a bank holding company, which means they are highly regulated; assets are insured and not fully liquid and profits
      reflect this. JPM would want then to buy someone in a financial services merger and would not itself be a target. Such is not likely
      to occur yet,I believe, as the debt position of this company and its recent current troubles, coupled with what is a
      historically high PE multiple for any bank (even now) will limit JPM's buying power. I also believe that they will spring back by the end
      of the year and that any recovery in ASIA will be positively reflected at that point on their balance sheets. It is then that
      it looks good for JPM to go shopping for someone like DLJ or Lehman.

      More than 'Nuf said.

    • Yankees, it is good if you can admit if you are ever wrong. On humility, I always cover my ass by stating everything as opinion or thought or an educated guess. You should understand this, as it is better to look at what your counterpart says than the fact that they are your counterpart.

      Speaking of what one has said, Yankees I was tossing diplomatic salvos your way. Musky and I largely are in agreement and so I stand to gain nothing from "kissing his hiney." Far be it from you to miss a peace offering. By the way, favorite baseball teams are A's and Giants in West and Bosox and Orioles in East. Favorite player is Griffey Jr.

      As to AVEI and stents, restenosis would be largely diminished through use of fluoropolymers in stent coatings or composites, as they diminish protein and stain deposition and are largely antithrombogenic. Virtually every company is concerned with general swelling that occurs from any implantation.

      On Guidant, I agree that financials look better. Then again, history repeatedly shows that current stock performance is more important than financials and particularly where one company appears to look weaker on paper but wins in the market (egs - AGPH vs. VRTX or BCHXF, AOL vs. AT&T). This would suggest that one looks to gains in market share at the margin, in which area AVEI kicks ass on Guidant. Have you heard what doctors are saying?

      AS to gene therapy and angioplasty, I think that is unimportant for AVEI. The economy is so large that a company need not compete in more than a couple of areas in order to succeed (egs - NTAP, AGPH, ASND, and many takeover targets - MCAF, STRM, LASRF). And AVEI is awfully small.

      Go sycophants!

    • Enough talk about JPM, whatever happens, it'll happen soon enough. And then, if I'm wrong to think that JPM's stock price won't go down to 120 regardless of whatever earnings they report, I'm man enough to come here at least and say I was wrong.

      Next issue, Yrrema, you might as well stick your head up Musky's Ass since you're kissing it already. Just because somebody agrees with your short plays on JPM doesn't mean you have to follow the Yankees too. You're probably a fan of some team in California or you don't follow baseball at all.

      About AVEI, everybody should take a look at Guidant first. GDT, the fundamentals, that's financial figures, look a lot better there. By the way, Yrrema, what company is putting something out on restenosis? This is the main problem. Does AVEI have any gene therapy going on to rid the possible side effects of angioplasty?

    • Although not a Yankees fan, I hope they manage 9 in a row.

      A couple of Oopses! First, Moody's downgraded Morgan Guaranty Trust and JPM, not MS and JPM. And, second, any interested in biotech should check out AVEI, not VCEI (I don't know how that got in there): they make the ragin' stent and are stealing market share as a one product start-up; they also spend loads on R&D and are about to report amazing earnings.


      Enjoy the Upcoming Ride!

    • Let's go Yanks - 9 in a row

    • Moodys lowers ratings on JPM and MS debt and cites emerging market pressures, earnings volatility and global competition. Note that subordinated and junior subordinated debt was lowered several pegs. In non-lawyer speak, that means, respectively, any debt acquired from the debtor and from they who had acquired the debt from the debtor.

      If this all translates into a rally based on merger mania sentiment on Monday, then finance really means zippo and emotions win big.

      Dannypip, JohnMusky and shorts, if we don't get rich, come see me at the AVEI board later in the week. I work in the bio-chemical field and have an excellent record with option plays over there.

    • Moodys lowers ratings on JPM and MS debt and cites emerging market pressures, earnings volatility and global competition. Note that subordinated and junior subordinated debt was lowered several pegs. In non-lawyer speak, that means, respectively, any debt acquired from the debtor and from they who had acquired the debt from the debtor.

      If this all translates into a rally based on merger mania sentiment on Monday, then finance really means zippo and emotions win big.

      Dannypip, JohnMusky and shorts, if we don't get rich, come see me at the VCEI board later in the week. I work in the bio-chemical field and have an excellent record with option plays over there.

    • How did Yankees "know" that? A Monday rally like last week's would figure, if it happens.

      Since I was right about JPM's li'l recovery today, I'll take another stab at PREDICTION:

      Bobby Rubin and Cussy D'Amato don't have insider info. MONDAY peak price would come in the early AM at about 143-144, followed by closing at 139-140. Tuesday looks ugly still, with closing down as much as 12-15% over the following 2-3 days.

      OK, I know I apologized for getting sidetracked before. But I cannot hel myself. Just a note for Yankees. (1) "Worst ever
      earnings" could be relative to expectations, but it was not my choice of words. Your post was misleading! (2) If you despise Arrogance
      so much, then perhaps you should consider cloaking your language in the conditional or subjunctive rather than the imperative.
      Say something like, "I think you have no couth" rather than "JPM will take off Monday". (3) It is arrogant to speak of teaching
      anyone anything or "letting them learn" at your tender age.

      Go JPM - down to where you belong!


    • JPM is taking off on Monday...

      See you then...

    • In short at 140 9/16, noting blaah volume and positive sentiment on the new Japanese tax cut package. If recent past is prologue, the newest Japanese deal will not pacify staunch growth advocates for long and pessimism will eek out over the weekend.

      For all you other posters out there, pardon my sarcasm and any response to Yankees07. The guy changes his story every other post, "it should go up" and "I got out long ago," "WAAAH!". Note that Zack's now has JPM earnings at 1.98.

      Power to those who dare to doubt self-interested brokers. The Asia impact is far from over. But, to see this, one would have to be willing to give the same sort of longer term view to the ill-effect of that crisis as he/she gives to prospective stock growth stories like YHOO.

      Have a Wild Ride Next Week!!

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