The numbers for JASa at mid-October are right off the dial.
And the fact that short interest on JASb is also up sharply suggests that this is not just an increase in A vs. B hedging, but rather a big increase in the bet that the company's fortunes--and both classes of stock--are in for a fall.
Well, it's a free country.
Mr Martin: Thank you for the kind considerite comments and the good advise. I know deep doen youre a freindly guy! EVEN tho we dissagree on this stock. heres a stock tip for you; no,TWO stock tips for you!!!!!!
LONG on ASF........$7 now
SHORT on TSCO......$42 now
"So if you want to be civil, welcome back".
I didn't realize you were the keeper of the board.
Regarding being out of JAS, I have not problems with this strategy. Simple risk/reward. I have made my money, quite handsomely I might add. I am able to think objectively about this company. And, once again I stand on my analysis. Just because I'm not invested doesn't mean it isn't correct.
Your strategy however is to continue to shamlessly bash. Like most shorts, you rely on fear and "end of worldism". I see volume is picking up. I'm not in until I see upside confirmation. It's quite simple.
Now, what I won't do is get on line for 8 months and misrepresent truths. Christianity is your basis? I think not.
Is very flawed. A stock falls of its own weight, but it takes volume to push a stock up. JAS is not showing any good volume to the upside either. You indicated that you were out and waiting for the B shares to get back to the 18, 19 range. But they never made it there, so your analysis doesn't include your making money. JASa/b still resides below its 50-day moving average.
If you are planning to get in when the B shares approach 18, be aware that the A shares have key support around the 23 level. If this level of support is broken, it will be very important, since this support has been there since early August. It is also about where the 200 day moving average is. If the B shares break 19 on the downside, the A shares break 23, and this stock could go into free fall. You want to get in at that level? Very dangerous.
Like my wife says, Christianity is about forgiveness. So if you want to be civil, welcome back.
Oh Martin, you are so wise. I guess I have shown my true colors.
The fact is this. You will continue to struggle in the market with the attitude that you are right and the market is wrong. I can only imagine the extent of your loses. Don't worry though, a rising tide lifts all boats and you might make back all your loses within a few years of good results. Study hard, read some investing books, and keep trying. Have you considered putting your remaining cash in an index fund?
On another note, it seems as though one of your bretheren has arrived on the board. You and rzkvedttea have a different approach, but will have similar results.
BTW, looks like my TA has panned out pretty well again. My analysis about low volume last few days seems to show lack of selling by big boys. Now we're moving up again. My previous prognostications has all been pretty accurate. I just see misteps from your posts, Martin. Please, study up. Your long posts are fascinating, but just listen to the market. Please, I urge you to just stop being so hellbent on your own "correct" analysis. You may someday make a success out of yourself.
Best of Luck,
Your a good guy too. You may not take my advice about JAS, but here's some friendly advice that I hope you will take. The stock market is ruthless, and you can loose a lot of money if you are not careful. But if you like the stock market you can make money a lot of money at it. Remember that the money you make is earned because you have to work hard to make it. Sometimes you do all the work and are wrong anyway. Sometimes you do all the work and loose money because the market disagrees with you. But over time you will come to enjoy the market because you will be successful and enjoy the action. You won't even take it too hard when you are right (like I was on JAS last spring), and the market disagrees with you. That's all part of the fun.
But working is not spending time on these boards that are composed mostly of people like shlang_shling who have no business being in the market. Working is reading books and studying the markets and companies. Educate yourself on Technical analysis (the study of charts and trends), and fundamental analysis (the study of companies).
If you do this and work hard, you may be successful. As a start, you may want to read "How to Make Money In Stocks" by William O'Neill. But this is ONLY a start. There are lazy and tortured souls like shlang_shling who think that his momentum investing is the end of it all. But like all hot "methods", this one will and is prooving unsuccessful except for the most disciplined traders.
But holding onto a stock like JAS because you like the company or the stuff they sell is pure folly and you can loose a lot of money. I wouldn't want to see that happen to a good guy. Don't listen to Schlang. His means of expression shows what kind of person he is. Your smart investment in JAS shows your potential. But it is not always so easy. From here on out you have to do the work.
Martin, your analysis assumes that the stock options have a strike price of zero--which is certainly not the case.
Those 50,000 JASa options that Brian Carney exercised had a strike price of $21.19 (see the Quicken link you gave). So he made money by selling those shares for more than that but he still had to pay for the shares. A total of 50,000 x $21.19 = $1,059,500 was added to JAS's cash position. And since JAS's book value per share is only around $13.50 or so, the exercise of those options actually made the company's book value per share go up, not down. I sure have no complaints.
Now most of the options outstanding do have a lower strike price than $21.19. The weighted average is a little over $10. So ultimately they will be mildly dilutive. But it's not enough that, as a shareholder, I'm going to care all that much.
And if the shares stay up or go higher (and you'll be shocked to hear that I think they're worth more than $5) then, yes, the top people at JAS will make a lot of money. But you know what? I'm OK with that. I know that it took a lot of skill and a ton of hard work to get this company straightened out and now running smoothly. If not for the current management team there might not be a JAS today.
(And no, I haven't forgotten the rank and file--who deserve a lot of credit for sticking with it through a difficult 2000 and early 2001. I think it's great that a lot of employees have benefitted from the ESPP--and at a time when so many people elsewhere have unfortunately seen their 401K's beaten up by falling share prices.)
With the shares still in the dumps over a year ago I was concerned, I admit, that management would take the opportunity to load up on LOW-STRIKE-PRICE options--which could be seen as rewarding themselves for having contributed to getting the company in trouble. But, in fact, they showed admirable restraint--especially Alan Rosskamm, who showed real leadership in taking no options at all. Credit also must go to the Compensation Committee and the entire Board of Directors.