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True Religion Apparel, AŞ Message Board

  • olivertse Nov 4, 2009 8:34 AM Flag

    TRLG will be hammered, Nov 25 put buyers will cash in

    TRLG will be hammered the same way Under Armour (UA) was hammered last week for having the GALL to "raise" guidance to a level that is BELOW "consensus" estimates.

    TRLG is trading in the $22's pre-market. Down about 15% compared to Tuesday's close.

    Those of us who saw the big block of November 25 put options trade on Tuesday afternoon and decided to follow the trade (I bought November 25 puts and sold November 22.5 puts) will cash in on Wednesday morning.

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    • Too bad i didn't sell too soon this time and i bought back "cheap shares", but not cheap enough. I have faith in time we go back up, bt this sucks. I wasn't home yesterday but i am sick looking at my acct. this morning.I cant believe this from a 1 cent miss.lets hope for better days soon!

    • Ok. Thats all I wanted to hear. I will cover soon.

    • and any other words to say you have me. $20.27 thought it would go down but nothing like. You guys can yell at each other about options or proclaim $30 by next year ... but boy today hurts bad.


      by DEC-19 not only will the puts expire worthless, but i'll have your premium and teach you another lesson - the volatility will not be nearly as elevated as it is now..

      seriously, go back to think or swim or your cage.. you are too stupid - typical monkey trader

    • olivertse Nov 4, 2009 3:27 PM Flag

      > i was short the DEC-22.50s coming into this a.m...

      You bet WRONG by selling the Dec 22.5 puts (at around $1) on Tuesday (meaning you were willing to buy TRLG at $21.50) and you still mouth off.

      (You could buy TRLG for $21 on Wednesday afternoon)

      What a marooooooooooooooooooon...




    • bottom line: you don't know sh!t, and you know less about options.

      i was short the DEC-22.50s coming into this a.m... i am just short more now b/c you idiot traders gave me a freebie

      thanks moron, i'll take that premium from you monkeys all day

    • olivertse Nov 4, 2009 2:57 PM Flag

      Bottom line:

      You were long and you were wrong about TRLG.

      TRLG is down 20%, as expected, after it tried the same "raise guidance to below consensus" trick that drowned UA last week.

    • cant believe i have to school you more, but as you know TRLG is a non-dividend paying stock so the fisher black approximation is perfectly adequate.. in fact, it come within a nickel of your beloved Bjerksund-Stensland approximation

      think or swim? ahhahaa, you retail bafoon.... go trades your 25 share lots and maybe you can write some covered calls one day


    • olivertse Nov 4, 2009 10:01 AM Flag

      > i highly doubt you are building binomial trees, or even know what it is..

      Hey mining_air, errrrrrrr AZZ HOL...

      I have built binomial trees before, in a class taught by Mark Rubinstein, the same Rubinstein who co-invented the binomial tree.

      There are approximations to the binomial tree.

      Ever heard of Bjerksund-Stensland?

      That's what uses.

    • i would be a seller of the 22.5 puts today - if you were so confident in your trade, why not just buy the 25 puts outright?

      sounds like you have an imaginary trade on that you cooked up after the earnings release

      good job monkey

      • 1 Reply to mining_air
      • olivertse Nov 4, 2009 9:13 AM Flag

        > if you were so confident in your trade, why not just buy the 25 puts outright?

        You have exposed yourself as an idiot retail investor.

        Professional options traders trade "spreads" in order to 1) reduce the cost of the trade, and 2) mitigate the effect of "implied volatility compression" after an earnings event.

        The November 25 puts were very expensive, with a very high implied volatility, on Tuesday.

        By selling the November 22.5 puts, I reduced the cost of my trade.