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VASCO Data Security International Inc. Message Board

  • mgm2020 mgm2020 Oct 9, 2012 7:08 PM Flag

    tidbits from the conference call...

    The lowered guidance was due to orders that were expected to be placed in the 3rd quarter being delayed--and not cancelled. These orders are expected to be booked and filled either in the 4th quarter or in 2013 so the revenue will not be attributable to 2012. This will lead to the revenue shortfall from forecast this year but the revenue will be added into the forecast in 2013. This is similar to what occurred in Q1 of this year when revenue fell shy due to order and fulfillment delays, but when it was realized in the second quarter it led to a record quarter for the company and the jump back up in the stock price.
    The 3rd quarter is typically the weakest due to business schedules and buying cycles, especially in Europe, but through the 3rd quarter, total order intake this year is still 18% higher than in 2012.
    The competitive environment is very strong, but Vasco has not lost any orders to competition--and the margins are not expected to be affected and are still over 60%.
    The company still reports a "strong pipeline of new orders" and remains very optimistic going into 2013.(stressed a few times by Hunt)
    Overall, the CC seemed pretty low-key and Hunt seemed genuinely apologetic to have to report the change in guidance. But he also used the word optimistic numerous times and restated that overall orders were up 18% in 2012 over 2011. I see this as a short-term revenue decrease, similar to what occurred in Q1 of this year with the numbers returning to normal in 2013 and the revenue and EPS getting back to where they should be. Hunt also said that the company has a manpower shortage in the sales department, and they are having difficulty finding strong salespeople for the company.
    Although the hit to the stock price was significant(overdone), the company will show the delayed revenue in future quarters. The key is 'delayed' and not cancelled. Order intake is the highest ever and the company is still expanding. This quarter and the CC should place a solid floor under the stock. There won't be any surprises in 2 weeks, and any new large orders or new customer acquisitions will raise the revenue numbers and guidance accordingly. 2013 should be a big year for Vasco.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • Ahhhhhhhh,now can it be BELIEVED what they stated on the cc is true?
      Do they take an oath in front of the SEC to tell the truth?
      How do we really know the orders are delayed instead of cancelled?
      Internet CCs are notorious for false comments,misleading data and so on.
      I would like to see proof of delayed orders in lieu of cancelled orders.
      Why take his word for it?
      What's in it for them or HIM to tell the truth if the orders are indeed cancelled? NOTHING.

      • 1 Reply to myyddogal
      • Whether we like it or not, there is no other source of information. Analysts receive their data and guidance from the company, and you had Valcke and Hunt giving the conference call today. According to Kendall T. Hunt, the Chairman and CEO of the company, there have been no cancellations of expected orders and orders are running 18% above last year through the 3rd quarter. So--the full year revenue that up until a few weeks ago was forecast to be $175 million OR MORE is now going to be somewhere in the range of $150-157 million. Not chicken feed by any means and still one of the best years in Vasco history, but short of the original target. Just like the 2nd quarter of this year--the delayed receipt of the revenue and orders will be carried over into 2013 and be reflected in next year's numbers which, hopefully, will be exactly where they would have been had the orders for the remainder of 2012 not been delayed and, likewise, the stock price will also be reflective of the full revenue amounts.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

 
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