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VASCO Data Security International Inc. Message Board

  • mgm2020 mgm2020 Feb 6, 2013 3:08 PM Flag

    Still holding true to form---just look....

    From the Sept ER to the Feb ER in 2010-'11 and 2011-'12 the same thing happened with the stock. In 2010-'11 the stock went from $9 at the Sept/Oct/2010 ER down to $7.10 before the Feb ER and then rallied to almost $15! After the Sep/Oct,2011 ER the price went from $9 down to $6.31 and then rallied up to nearly $11. This time the stock was at $9.07 when the Sept/Oct ER was released, but because the company issued the preaanouncement early, that changed the trading dynamic quite a bit and the stock hit the low of $6.51 immediately after that, and then came back a bit--- and here is where we sit today. This stock is deja vu all over again. Lather-rinse-repeat. The numbers are uncannily similar. $9.00 give or take a few pennies down to $7.10, $6.31, and $6.51----the first 2 to be followed by enormous rallies, and I don't expect anything to change this time, even with the lowered full-year guidance. Typically the 4th quarter is VERY strong, and they have had the same situation where orders were delayed and the revenue pushed into the following quarter adding to a bigger blowout. I think that at a minimum revenue will come in at the high end of their guidance, but more realistically I expect a positive beat by anywhere from $3-$5 milliion--maybe a little more. We'll see how the new customer additions are going to impact revenue in 2013---Digipass in Italian, Mydigipass, Sony Bank, Trusteer, and others. This is a BIG market, and the penetration at this point is miniscule. With the strength of the euro, there should also be some additional benefit, as such a large percentage of their business is in Europe, and the Euro has gone up about 4 or 5% in the last couple of months. It's very nerve-racking sitting here on as many shares as I have, but this is the way Vasco works--and If they come out with guidance of $175 million or more for 2013---this time you can believe it, and hopefully it will be a little higher. Still see the stock from $10-$11 in 4 weeks.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

 
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