I rate it 50-50. Reason I am not knowledgable enough on the subject . But I would be interested in someone who knows this better to weigh in and share their thoughts. I am expecting some doctors that know this to jump in. Not interested in the thoughts of stock junkies
Are you only looking for opinions from MEDICAL doctors, or will you accept the analysis of a PhD? How about an honorary PhD? Because me, I'm a doctor of thinkology. My papers were conferred upon me by the Wizard himself. And I say that the chance of clinical success for Phase III trials of Pimavanserin is 1,115%. But then, I also said that the sum of the square roots of any two sides of an isosceles triangle is equal to the square root of the remaining side, and I got THAT wrong. Oh, joy, oh, rapture. I've got a brain.
good words of advice................as a Rn let me just comment on what I think on approval. Look the company has a great drug and as with all bio's big and small, the FDA will carefully tear apart every aspect of a drug before putting it on the market for digestion. This is not a bad thing because long-term effect can potentially ruin someones life, and possibly end it. Lots of people frown on the FDA and I have my moments but each drug has to be investigated in trials and then with the use of other medications. This is where sometimes the drugs seevhold-backs. Yes lots of folks out there taking numerous meds - heart, diabetes, seizure, cancer meds, antibiotics - just to name a few. The important thing to focus on is #1 the drug has made it to phase 111 clinicals- thats a positive #2 How does it work with other meds and people with chronic diseases and conditions - are there contrindications?
Once we pass all this then I'm sure the FDA looks at drug doses, age factors and climate and shelf life conditions.
My opinion is that 50/50 is a correct way to think on any pending approval unless the word is out prior to approval that there are absolute contraindications. I doubt the FD plays favorites or takes part in some conspiricy and I usually hope for the 50 positive vs the 50 negative especially since we are on a mission to wipe out cancer and other costly diseases today.
This is JMO, lets hear yours!
(50- positive approval)
excues my run-ons and mispelled words in my last posting.
I'm in a rush today being its saturday and there is a lot to catch up on at my home.
Last thought for the week. look into companies that reduce health-care costs- LLBO (finds breast and uterine cancer at its most primitive stage). I like BIEL a whole whole bunch-- Just the ideas of eliminating drug abuse and also replacing their device vs XS Tylenol (being pulled from OTC by FDA as it damages liver with long-term use and added to the RX meds).
Good luck all
When have you ever seen a big pharma like Biovail give 30 million up front going into clinical III? For Biovail to hand out that kind of money they must feel that the odds are very high.
I got to tell you, this alone is keeping me from selling.....
From my web research I estimate that there are 2 million people worldwide with Parkinsons that also suffer from psychosis (rougly 6 miliion with Parkinsons).
Now, this is just Parkinsons....think of the other markets as well...
If the III results go well this will be a replay of HGSI.
All in my opinion, this is not a reccomendation to buy or sell.
With HGSI all we had was a few dozen analysis saying the drug will never succeed. With ACAD we have a 20 to 1 call to put ratio. People are overwhelimingly putting their money on ACAD to succeed.
I don;t think they mean 50/ 50 as the reliance of the drug- I think the writer posted 50/50 as to how the FDA will view the acceptance. Last night one company got word their drug was not accepted and that must be difficult to digest especially when they thought they had all their ducks in a row.
Life's decisions should be based on the majority sometimes other than just a few, but they do have panels that view the companies drugs without bias. (? hmmm ? )