Now ACAD remind me a "Face Book" when it started on public. Even with FDA approval $650MM is a killer. No way they will sell enough to support this CAP. Psychosis of Parkinson is a rare disease.
It will get deep back soon. Even $6 was too much for this kind of drag.
Let's take the data from the Motley Fool post today on ACAD, and then apply some analysis. 60% of the 500,000 sufferers of Parkinson's in U.S. also suffer from psychosis. Today's detailed publication shows Pimavanserin is so superior to all other off-label drugs that I'd expect it to pretty much take over that role from all the others. (Abilify alone has sales of $7B/yr although admittedly most are not for Parkinson's psychosis). Let's assume the cost per patient is a very conservative $5,000 / yr. (It'll likely be significantly higher, based on other drugs costs). $5,000 x 60% x 500,000 patients = $1.5B/yr sales. Typical very large pharma companies which have many drugs across a wide range, trade for a conservative 3 x Sales. The average for the Industry is 19x Sales. But let's stick with 3x Sales. That puts the market cap of ACAD at $4B. Currently it is at $650M. So on this very conservative analysis, the price/share should be 6x higher or ~$50/share on Pimavanserin alone. Unless the new trial being set up now somehow goes south, I'd expect the market to slowly price in something much higher than the $8.30/shr we have tonight.
do the DD dummy. Undervalued Big time.
2 Biopharma Stocks Rallying On Fresh Clinical Trial Data
March 21 2013,
Ultimately I think that Acadia could see a lot more interest in the next few trading sessions as investors think about the huge prospects that this drug could have in an untreatable neurodegenerative disease, and while we move closer to a potential NDA submission. These results also bode well for Pimavanserin's other development programs, which include Pimavanserin for the treatment of schizophrenia and Alzheimer's Disease Psychosis (ADP).
You have received 3 thumb ups an what. Whoever listen you and similar to you losers lost 25% of the initial investment Yesterday. When it is going be back? Probably never!
But lets assume you are correct that you are not! Then what? Was it better to buy stock at $8.50 or $7.50 or $7 that will be very soon. Initial investment is too important matter to be ignored.
Read more carefully how drag performs. It's failed at first time! Do you know it? And Only last trial showed slight improvement. I am from medical devises field myself and know how tricky data performance could be - specifically when improvement is so tiny! Remember NTMD race drag?
$28 to 2C in two years!!!
I don't trust it!
As I said, it doesn,t worth it. I was shorting all other, non-stop yesterday staring from $8,20 to $8.75 and to the end of the day $8.20 again. My ACAD account today is as green as dollar itself...
Life is good when you know well what is going on...