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ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. Message Board

  • mkadb mkadb Apr 14, 2013 12:11 PM Flag

    ACAD worth maybe $8.50 at Too much jubilation here.

    You will get burned chasing this eventually.

    Today's news shaves roughly 12 months off the expected approval of pimavanserin in PDP. If Acadia can win a priority review, that would shave an additional four months. We had previously stated that Acadia was worth $7.50 per share. The stock closed at $7.97 yesterday, just above our calculated valuation. Now, the stock is roughly $11. Does shaving 12 to 16 months and saving $15 million alone add $3.50 to our valuation? The answer is no.

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    • Agreed. I think most of the people who are still pumping on this board havent read the last 10-K filing or any other. They are in the red like all other biotechs, and are not yet profitable. They have $100M cash on hand and a burn rate of $25-$30M per year. That means more dillutions, just like last year, to keep enough cash on hand. This stock will take hits on the many quarterly earnings in the next two years. The other drug pipelines are only in Phase I clinicals, and have not yet been proven safe for humans.

      As for buyout, there is so much time, work and money that needs to go into this yet to get the Parkinsons drug on the market, selling the Co. now would be like a fire sale. The ACAD board as a fiduciary duty to maximize shareholder value, and I believe that is best accomplished by bringing this to market. IF they even are interested in selling, that would be the time to do so. Buy why sell then, it will be raining money and the sky is the limit? ACAD could be the next Merck rather than getting bought out by them.

      • 1 Reply to barganguy
      • Barganguy,

        First, ACAD can now easily raise $100 million or more without terrible dilution. There's no problem with cash. The cash will allow them to expand into ADP, a market five times bigger that PDP. And then they can move into schizophrenia (on their own, if necessary) which is the really huge market. I actually bought in at $1.29 based on the Phase II results in schizophrenia. The results of that trial were outstanding, but the quicker route to market was definitely in PDP. There is some chance that when approved, Pimavanserin will be used off-label in ADP and perhaps in schizophrenia.

        BTW, shorts should be warned that ACAD will be added to the Russell 2000 in June when the indexes re-configure. This will goose the share price.


        Sentiment: Buy

    • You obviously have not done your homework. We are talking a Billion dollar drug that is fast tracked, a buy out candidate, that will no doubt have an indication in a naked PDP arena. It will also have multiple off label uses that will probably makes BILLIONS for the lucky owner who has FULL and TOTAL PATENT RIGHTS. BTW the current sp is 12.54 and the price target is about $19, but we could see more increases in the target soon. So have a good one and if you are so sure in your beliefs, go ahead and short it bright 'n early manana and see if you don't get your clock cleaned.

    • Good call,people will not hold this huge profits for a long period of risky time.This low is just $ 1 one year ago

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

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