You'll wish you bought it at 13 when the stock runs into high 20s
Most clinical trials fail, but ACAD hit it out of the park with its 020 study. The FDA was so impressed, it waived the confirmatory p3 trial.
Anyone who wants to know why Wall Street is gobbling up shares should remember something one of the leading experts on Parkinson's said last year - "If pimavanserin were on the market I'd prescribe it all the time to my patients." ACAD is sitting on a huge blockbuster, and the smart money knows it, which is why the stock continues to run up.
true, but insiders have been selling some stock, so it's a bit unusual that the stock keeps moving higher. I agree that if they prove success in Alzheimer's P this is worth a lot more. Not sure how large the market is for Parkinson's but at this price/value is seems investors are expecting a very large licensing deal, or acquisition since they are not even going to be ready to file for approval until late 2014, over a year from now.
Ask yourself who is selling all of these shares if longs and institutions are holding. Hedgies are just manipulating the price with 5-10k bid asks that fly on and off the lvl II with no real change in actual volume traded. Its pure manipulation to run it up. Later, any retailers who bought in at this level will be left holding the bag.
ACAD execs have exercised options, but in fact there has been a lot of institutional buying lately. According to Nasdaq, 29 institutions recently bought positions, and I wouldn't be surprised if several new ones have come in the last few days.
As for the NDA, I think "late 2014" is the latest it will be filed. I suspect the company will be filing it sometime in early to mid-2014.