I was an early investor in Incyte and all Incyte investors likely remember the commanding position that Baker Bros took in Incyte. They made an absolute fortune there. I'm sure that Baker Bros views Acadia as their next huge winner. They already own something like 30% which is obviously huge. It seems to me that they're not done adding either. They certainly have the funds to buy the entire company if they so desired.
Valuing Acadia isn't really that difficult because the on-ramp via Parkinson's psychosis is going to rapidly lead to a drug with known efficacy in schizophrenia, possibly Alzheimer's, possibly depressive conditions and possibly even insomnia. It has ultra-blockbuster written all over it. This is the type of compound that can literally make a pharma company. I almost don't want them to be taken out because of the huge potential here. It makes me thing of Celgene when they were just at $1B...they're now at $50B.
The FDA has waived the need for the next trial....an NDA is going to happen and off-label use will be huge. This is early days and Acadia is a steal IMO.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Board of directors would sell their mothers for a $1. Its the shareholders who have to approve unless this gets hostile, which I wouldnt rule out the way someone has been hogging up shares the past few days. I would bet any price at this point is met with lawsuits from shareholders because ACAD could get a much better price once the drug is on the market. Selling at this point would basically be giving up on all the hard work they have put in at this point for a lesser amount of money, and I dont see them doing that.
The $25-$50 pps ranges are not realistic at this point as they dont have the Parkinson's product on the market yet, and have about 2 years of FDA hoops to jump through yet. Plus they have a high burn rate of cash, so their cash on hand has very little value when you look at their $6.8M quarterly burn rate eating that up over 2-3 years.