Too cheap. I saw one net present value estimate of $17 today and that's not factoring in the upside for Alzheimer's or schizophrenia. Last year $60B in scripts were written for atypical antipsychotics. $23 can't come close to getting it done. My estimate for a price today would be $35-40. Once approval happens all bets are off. Sky becomes the limit...especially if Acadia generates positive Phase 2 results in Alzheimer's.
The biggest decision faced by Acadia is label expansion via additional NDA's or just generating Phase 2 results and then allowing for off-label prescribing. I like the idea of slow and methodical label expansion. Why not fully develop pimavanserin which could very easily be the next risperidone...just better! All my opinion, but the pima results have been astounding. Acadia is just getting warmed up and I wouldn't even entertain offers under $35...and I don't believe that they will. After approval the upside is incredible. I will be holding and have been holding...and buying much more.
Where is the buyer then? You pumpers have been saying the same thing for over a year now. If it is so competitive that people will pay 4x market price, why has there yet to have been a single offer? LOL!