I continue to look for ACAD to be in the $18 range prior to any buyout and then a clean 2x+ on a buyout. Just my opinion, but I always come up with a price target of $3.5B in a deal.
Timeline is interesting. We are heading into the summer months where deals don't really happen, but this is likely a highly competitive situation so biz dev teams will be punished severely by senior management for sitting on their hands. Teva and Cephalon happened in May and Glaxo/GSK talks started in April and ended in July (with a juicy deal).
Traditionally, I would say that I would be looking for a corporate event in the Fall/Winter of 2013, but anyone can bid at any time. Acadia and Pimavanserin are well known to industry...this is a question of when to bid...not if. I think the upcoming corporate events at Acadia also make this an especially important time for large pharma to be involved. The structure/design/launch of the ADP trial is critical.....this asset has to be handled just right and a buyer is likely going to want to do it themselves. The same goes for future schizophrenia trials. Finally, the NDA meetings with the FDA are equally critical (and perhaps most critical). If I'm the partner then I'm looking to take control of this asset before more NDA discussions, before the launch of the ADP trial and before any other studies that carry so much weight. I just don't see large pharma standing to benefit from waiting this out. The only thing that happens is the competition builds and the price goes up. I think an early mover will get this and they'll pay a handsome price for it.
As always, all just my opinion and I'm an ordinary investor just like all of you. Do your own DD. As for me, I'm loving ACAD!