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ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. Message Board

  • golfmaniac93 golfmaniac93 May 26, 2013 4:49 PM Flag

    Meaningful discussion on company future.

    Assuming eventual annual revenues of $1 billion (4-6 years down the road, which I think is pretty conservative) the company should be worth between 5-10 billion dollars. That would put the price per share between $52 (5 billion/96 million outstanding shares, assuming more shares are thrown into the pool for employee compensation) and $104 (10 billion/96 million outstanding shares). I truly believe these are realistic estimates.

    As another poster mentioned, Alexion Pharma (ALXN) just did $1 billion in revenue for 2012 with one drug pulling in most of the revenue and the company is valued at 20x sales. My calculations above are at 5-10x sales. If Pimavanserin proves effective for ADP, watch out because we will be much much more than $1 billion in annuals sales. Honestly even if it doesn't prove effective, I'm sure many doctors will prescribe it off label and we will see decent sales from that.

    My main question is what are some potential sources of dilution over the next few years? We have $200 million in the bank and even if they want to raise another 200-300 million when that runs out in a 1.5-2 years that will probably only require a 7-10 million share sale at $30 per share which is not a whole lot in the grand scheme of things concerning dilution. This all sounds too good to be true so anyone with an intelligent rebuttal I would love to hear it.

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