Assuming eventual annual revenues of $1 billion (4-6 years down the road, which I think is pretty conservative) the company should be worth between 5-10 billion dollars. That would put the price per share between $52 (5 billion/96 million outstanding shares, assuming more shares are thrown into the pool for employee compensation) and $104 (10 billion/96 million outstanding shares). I truly believe these are realistic estimates.
As another poster mentioned, Alexion Pharma (ALXN) just did $1 billion in revenue for 2012 with one drug pulling in most of the revenue and the company is valued at 20x sales. My calculations above are at 5-10x sales. If Pimavanserin proves effective for ADP, watch out because we will be much much more than $1 billion in annuals sales. Honestly even if it doesn't prove effective, I'm sure many doctors will prescribe it off label and we will see decent sales from that.
My main question is what are some potential sources of dilution over the next few years? We have $200 million in the bank and even if they want to raise another 200-300 million when that runs out in a 1.5-2 years that will probably only require a 7-10 million share sale at $30 per share which is not a whole lot in the grand scheme of things concerning dilution. This all sounds too good to be true so anyone with an intelligent rebuttal I would love to hear it.
i would imagine that there will be a stock split at 50-$60, then we hit $100...... and i would give acad %90+ of making it to $100....... i think acad is an empire and none of us can even imagine in our wildest dreams where the stock price will be within few years...........
A competitor appears with a product that does much the same as pimavanserin only better.
They hit a problem in scale-up that delays the timeline.
They hit a problem in drug interaction studies that greatly limits the potential market.
Have they completed carcinogenicity studies? Always a threat.
There was some chatter right after they announced the great Phase III results about how they used bogus endpoints; haven't heard more about that lately, but maybe it reappears during FDA review.
None of this is making me sell - the path to $100/share seems relatively clear, as these things go.
All good points and things that we probably won't have to worry about. Pimavanserin seems to have a very attractive safety and interaction profile, especially considering all trial patients took Pima simultaneously with their other drugs. If there were competing drugs in the works we would probably know about them. Full steam ahead.