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ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. Message Board

  • steveh8000 steveh8000 Jun 8, 2013 6:55 AM Flag

    FDA Caution

    I will just give the bulls a very strong PHARMA investor risk reminder. Your stock gain investment potential for the next 14 MONTHS is in the hands of the NDA (New Drug Application) to the FDA. A hurdle has been crossed with the FDA approving the initial data end points from the Phase III trials. A review board must agree prior to submission, and then the FDA must approve. This will take the remainder of this year, and into next year. A very slow grinding process to endure as an investor. If the FDA approves, then the DEA must schedule the drug, another six months goes by before going to market. Your RISK, lies entirely in the hands of the FDA and it is something you have absolutely no control over. The medical advisory review boards that approve before the FDA process are tainted in many ways with competing interest, and very political at times. FUD ...Fear, Uncertainty, & Deception will take place from the Wall Street media stream to slant towards short or long options, and do not underestimate it's effects ON STOCK PRICES. Junior Pharma is a option's playground, and market makers can, and will control the price around Opex time frames. This will be a DEA scheduled drug (Pimavanserin) #1 to #5 with 5 as the most restrictive.....where is lands in that schedule is very, very important as to how it can be marketed to the public, and effects how the health care system may cover the drug for patients. Overall, you have a very long time frame before it will really pay off, and you must have the patience to hold through the process. Filing and FDA acceptance of the NDA application is the next big hurdle, they may ask for additional expensive study information. A rejection by the FDA requiring additional study information will cut the stock in half in a Nasdaq trading mil-second. I would take a position, hold until each of these milestones are approved, and add at each step. GLTA

    Sentiment: Hold

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    • You know your process but why no mention of the second Phase 3 wave off? Do you know that is without precedent in CNS. It has never happened. That is bigger than anything else.

      • 1 Reply to investormdpart2
      • Correct, that is simply stating the FDA is satisfied with results already. The FDA works very close with advice on the trial study end points that are needed to submit for a new drug application. It means the study data met the end points required/outlined for the trail, and no other data is required.
        It is an important piece of the puzzle, and a thumbs up for Acadia producing a successful trial study.

    • steve-bbry- every time the stock goes up nip witz like u (whos loosing your pants shorting) start saying "at this level you missed the boat"- 17 is so cheap, this is only the beginning, u shorting idiots will get crashed..acad is going to $100+ shortly.......

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • jab91252 Jun 8, 2013 1:30 PM Flag

      haha what a idiot, the stock has only gone up $15 in 6 months, that is too slow and too risky hahaha how many of you have invested in other stocks that took 2 years to go up a dollar hahaha what a idiot.

    • Steve,

      I actually think you are right, I have owned a huge block of this stock since the PIII-2 failure and patiently waited for them to focus on the 40 MG results of that study. We even bought more of it when Bill Wells joined on. The story got even better when the Baker Brothers showed up. Today we sold some of the block and wrote Sept Calls on a big chunk as well. We have no money of our own in it now, and in fact, easily doubled our investments should the rest go to zero. This one trade has made us very rich and we intend to protect that once in a lifetime achievement for our families' sake. I have no problems walking away from this trade with the amount of money we have made today and so option writing is the way to go for us going forward here. We should have no problem finding another safer investment to double our money on over the next two years. Its time to head for the exit. Thanks

    • Steveh,
      I can not see how you can say slow grind since in the last year we have gone from under 2 to 17 and just in the last two months we have doubled. I wish all my trades were this slow. The options i bought last month went from .70 to 5.35 I guess risk and time are two things you are not used to so maybe the stock market is not for you. Try a knitting group or maybe bingo? They will cure your fear of risk and speed so buy a rocking chair and park it on the porch with the rest of the old foggies because the market is not for all

      • 3 Replies to biotrader1
      • Bio pharm investing is a high risk with high reward.....each to their own risk profile as investors. True, retired and high risk in my portfolio is mostly absent. I do place some reasonable money into a reasonable risk reward stocks. Getting in on the front is very different than getting in now. I own another pharma where I got in early......riding high now with no concern about market drops after four years long.

      • I understand, for those people who missed the ride from $12 to $17. Their feeling are bad, they want to buy ACAD but now don't know how to do. Buy it now or keep waiting and hope to buy it lower? Steve is the one, choose to post "reminder" message and hoping to have someone to unload the shares base on his reminder.

      • Steve doesn't own even one share of ACAD (check his another message), he wants to buy ACAD at $12.5 that is why he give "reminder" to all the bulls and wish all the bulls sell the winner shares to push stock down to $12.5 so he can buy it....

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