I don't mean to rain on the parade of recent breakout; but i think we need to cool down a bit and think about all the potential risks on ACAD. Remember Pimavanserin suppress PDP; it doesn't cure PD. The successful P3 result is based on subjective observation of few hundred patience. What the real world result would be when applied to thousands or hundreds of thousands of patients is really anyone guess. Unlike other drugs for serious disease such as cancer, Pimavanserin doesn't have a progression free or overall survival objective measure for primary end point. It concerns me that Pimavanserin result is just a subjective observation.
Second risk is other potential, promising treatment to PD. I recent came across this article titled Cancer Drug Shows Promise for Parkinson's Disease; quote "June 6, 2013 A chemotherapy treatment for adults with leukemia may hold potential to treat people with Parkinson’s disease (PD), according to an early study published May 10 in Human Molecular Genetics. In mice, the drug was able to reduce levels of a harmful protein in the brain and improve motor symptoms. Scientists have not yet determined the drug’s potential for people living with PD, but this early study in mice offers hope." What's going to happen to ACAD stock if this gets FDA backing?
Just like every other stock, this has risks; but all the posts i saw so far all sound like if this is a slam dunk, 100%, i will retire super rich awesome stock. Let's try some DD here. I still think this is a good long term bet; but i don't see why ACAD is getting pumped to a 2 billion company without a NDA submission, FDA approval, or any revenue.
Nice post andrewdude88. I am long ACAD and loving every minute of it. But it is a bit worrisome how so many think this is a "slam dunk." Forty seven years in this trading/investing game and I have yet to see a slam dunk. You know the old saying about how if is too good to be true........" I will probably exit if ACAD trades back below 13.50, something I would foresee happening only if there is some unforeseen negative news on Pimavanserin. Otherwise, holding for the long run.
Doesn't matter how many people were in the trial.....FDA says go,go and go. Next, why would I want to have Chemo and kill the rest of my body with side effects? Strong buy. Buy on any pullbacks. This is a winner stock.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
PA treatment for Parkinson's Disease and other movement diseases that actually modifies the course of the diseases remains a major unmet medical need. Our data suggests that PBT434 intervenes in metal dependent pathways which otherwise promote the aggregation of alpha-synuclein. Thus, PBT434 prevents the death of substantia nigra cells. We have observed marked improvements in motor function and coordination with PBT434," commented Associate Professor Robert Cherny, Prana's Head of Research.RAN, has a drug to cure PD .
I think you pretty much summed up the argument for ACAD in your overly paranoid post above. There is no viable competition to this. And PD will not be curable in the near future if ever.
Pimavanserin is the best choice possible obviously.
I don't know what are you talking about!. We all know that Pima doesnt' cure PD. It's for PDP. If you miss the run it's your problem. You say "P3 result is based on subjective observation of few hundred patience".
Read this paragraph and be quiet:
“The significant and consistent results observed across measures in the Phase III -020 Study are impressive and potentially very encouraging for Parkinson’s patients who suffer from the psychosis frequently associated with this disease,” said Dr. Jeffrey Cummings. “Importantly, regardless of whether assessments were performed by independent blinded raters, site investigators or caregivers, clear benefits were observed and clinical measures were well aligned. The results of this study suggest that a selective, non-dopaminergic-based therapy has the potential to transform the standard of care by providing an effective, safe and well tolerated treatment for patients suffering from this large unmet medical need.”
Sentiment: Strong Buy
acad is special- on its way to become a 20+ billion company, you come in shorting acad off charts and scans without doing the homework, once in a while there are real companys with real life changing products and they are priced accordingly. 20 is cheap compared to 60 in a few months and 160 in a year........watch and learn