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ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. Message Board

  • andrewdude88 andrewdude88 Jul 16, 2013 6:06 PM Flag

    M&A, buyout? I don't think so...

    As I indicated on prior posts, M&A, buyout and etc are very unlikely prior to FDA approval. Think about it, would a big pharma gamble billions for something that has yet to see an NDA and let alone FDA approval? Big pharma are not like you and I; they don’t really gameble. For a CEO, that would be career limiting move. Yes, ACAD has great potential, but until FDA says so, anything that can go wrong could still go wroung. If I am a CEO of a big pharma, I place my bet AFTER FDA approval to minimize my risk on investment. Better yet, I would even wait for the drug to go on sale on the market and monitor doctor, patients, insurance acceptance level, and revenue growth before I would consider a buyout. Wouldn’t that make a more logical sense? Sky is the limit when big companies start bidding on ACAD. This is really a long term investment that has big potentials; however, it is unlikely to see a serious buyout this or next year.

    Sentiment: Sell

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Nonsense. It happens all the time. You're premise is utterly false.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • if this is true how some companies invest millions and even billions on new startups? Companies can be bought out at any stage(pase 1, 2, prior approval post approval, after launch, after sales). It all depends on how desperate the buyer needs that pipeline or revnue stream and based on their own assesment.(cost benefit, ROI, strategic alliance, etc)

      Sentiment: Hold

    • andrewdude88 you big dummy FOOL.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • brettgravatt@rocketmail.com brettgravatt Jul 17, 2013 8:20 AM Flag

      Just when I think I've seen the most ignorant quote on this board somebody beats it !!! Good job dummy

    • ceos of big pharma need to grow earnings- you will be surprised at how much they are willing to gamble (all the clinical testing costs hundreds of millions without a guarantee that anything will be approved)....2 billion per year earnings potential is worth easy 10 billion before approval (given waive off trial) and 20 billion+ after....my numbers are probably too low but i dont know how to count higher, felix baker will take care of that.......by the time pima is approved and brings in 2 billion per year acad will be worth 40 billion.... one drug bringing in numbers like this is truly priceless.....andrew- you should sell your shares and buy apple until next year.......

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • I bought at $2. I could have waited and buy at $6 or $12.
      Big pharma can either buy at 3-4Billion or wait until sales start and buy at 8-10Billion. Approval is 95%+ confirmed, it's just matter or time now.

      The conclusion is, if you want big ROI, get in early. Not all small bio companies get such a positive response from FDA. They already said "no need to run another PH-3". What does that mean?

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • By the way, if you have question, you should ask Dr. Wang first. Dr. Wang has been in the biotech field since year 1990.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • are you just in biotech world this year? There are a lot of examples that M &A happened prior to FDA approval.
      For example,

      Gilead Sciences, which in November 2011 acquired biotech company Pharmaset in $10.8 BILLIONS ALL CASH DEAL. Pharmasset Hepatitis C drug in Phase III trials is called PSI-7977 and could be on the market by 2014. And Pharmasset only had 3 fill time employees.

      Do you want me to list more ? No wonder you are not a CEO of a big pharma.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 2 Replies to dnwang
      • You gotta be kidding me! Let's put Gilead's purchase in context. Here are some quotes from some new article on this purchase: "Investors balked at the deal on Monday, with shares of Gilead falling 9 percent on the announcement.", "'For Gilead to give up effectively one-third of their value for an unproven asset still subject to significant ongoing clinical risk seems remarkable,' Geoffrey Porges, biotechnology analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein & Company, wrote in a note Monday.", "An estimated three million to four million Americans — and as many as 170 million people worldwide — have chronic infections of hepatitis C. Many of those infected in the United States are baby boomers who injected drugs using contaminated needles decades ago and might not even know they have the disease. The infection can cause liver cirrhosis and liver cancer, but often not for decades."

        You are comparing orange and apple here. ACAD's drug is anti-psychosis, while Gilead's buyout was about a drug on serious disease; that disease has much larger effected population than ACAD estimated 600K with PDP. They brought it also due to intense competion from other major pharmas. As the quotes show, they made an risky investment and their share holders were too happy on day 1. So the situation is quite different. You are going to have to show me more examples, ha!

        I started investing in bio tech mid Aug last year and so far made a little over 200% in less an year on various companyies including ACAD. No shorting here. I do my DD all the time. I exited CLSN just less than an hour before that horrible news which halt and crashed the stock. I think i am not really a newbie and the profit i make is not too shaby... I still stand by my opinion that ACAD is worth a lot more and makes more sense to buy post FDA approval.

        Sentiment: Sell

      • You school that kid, Dr. Wang!
        Just another poster without a clue.
        Guess he never read any of investormdpart2 long posts about the importance of controlling the NDA process and the Phase II for ADP either.

    • I pretty much agree, except for the part about waiting for Pima to sell for a while to assess doctor / patient feedback. If big pharma co. A does that then they are no longer looking to buy Acadia, but rather big pharma co. B who bought Acadia upon FDA approval.

 
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