Per my revenue Model, I expect a US market peak sales number of $1.84bn with assumptions as follows:
1 mil Parkinson's patients, 35% with psychosis, 70% penetration rate after phase in and $7,692 per yr net to mfg ($12K cost to patient, incl. a 20% bump by the wholesaler (e.g. Cardinal) and a 30% bump by retailer (or more discount to managed care/govt payor).
1,000,000 x 35% x 70% X 7,692 (7,692 X 1.20% X 1.30%= $12,000) = $1,884,615,385 per year as an independent commercialization program.
You didn't ask re non US market but using these same metrics for an add'l 5 million population ex-us (Note: published statistics are 10 MM pop of Parkinson's worldwide but I'm only assuming 6 MM incl. US) and assuming a partnered role ex-US with a 23% royalty produces an add'l royalty revenue stream of $1,548,076,923 yr after full ramp up (assumes 35%, 70%, $7,692/yr net to mfg).
Bottom line is peak sales of $3.43 Bn (US direct, non US partnered at 23% royalty).
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Why do I get a feeling that ezvestor knows much more then he/she should. Cardinal as a supplier, only talking in terms of exact numbers and do not want to get in speculation. What is your connection with Acadia operations?
As far as foreign revenues are concerned new drugs get same if not more revenues, therefore ezvestor is right on international numbers.
Excellent analysis. Next Monday and Wednesday ACAD hosting news conference of sorts. It they announce ADP, schizo or depression trials, don't you think your estimates will have to change drastically?
Do you think the foreign price needs to be reduced from $7,692 to ???. I don't know of anything specific that indicates what the pricing is overseas, but it seems to me it would be discounted.
Great analysis. thx!
I've posted several times that the otherwise fine article entitled "Silver Lining Playbook" posted a couple months ago had pretty exciting revenue/valuation estimates but if you went thru the revenue model there was an error of magnitude 10 on PDP revenue. If you don't believe me go back and read this article and check the math very carefully!
I never take statements at face value and always doing my own financial analysis. My revenue model may be more fully developed than any of the analysts that cover Acadia.
Sentiment: Strong Buy