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ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. Message Board

  • biowk biowk Nov 6, 2013 12:55 PM Flag

    Market Value of Pimavanserin in PDP treatment

    There are many versions and models on the calculation of the sales of Pimavanserin. The results are very different and they confused me. As a scientist, I decided to do some research myself. Below are some information I found from scientific journals, reports and Internet.

    1. There are about 1 million Parkinson's patients in the US, among them up to 40% (400,000) will develop psychosis (PDP).
    2. The average life expectency (from getting the disease till death) of Parkinson's patient is about 16 years. On average, PDP patient begins to have psychosis symptoms at the 6th year of Parkinson's disease. This means the population of PDP patients in the US is equivalent to 400,000x10/16=250,000.
    3. Among those 250,000 equivalent patients, 50,000 need intensive care, they have to take Pimavanserin. Another 100,000 will most probably take Pimavanserin when it is available to improve their daily life. The rest 100,000 are on the initial stage of PDP. They could use Pimavanserin if doctor makes the suggestion and insurance covers it. Hopefully Obamacare will provide the benefits to them.

    Overall, we can expect 150,000 to 200,000 PDP patients in the US will potentially take Pima on daily bases. Accoring to a recent article from Seek Alpha, approximately each patient will contribute $7500/year to Acadia Pharmceutical's revenue. It is $1.125B to $1.5B in the US market.

    Europe has 30% more PDP patients than in the US. Considering that they have already approved another medicine for PDP, they may not use as much Pima as in the US. $0.5-1.0B/year is my estimation.

    The rest of the world won't consume more than $0.5B/year considering the economic situation of most patients.

    So the worldwide peak sale for Pima is between $1.5B to $2.5B year for PDP treatment.

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