S.A. makes a good case for a J & J buyout of ACAD. It's logical,they have plenty of cash, and could use a Resperidal replacement. This idea could become a financial rumor and give our stock a good boost in price.But a buyout would mean that the 87% institutional ownership of ACAD would have to agree so I'm confident any price agreed on would be the very best that ACAD could get
Interestingly, the right buyer of Acadia could also combine Pimavanserin with something like Risperdal to see if you could get an improved Risperdal side effect profile + the strong Pimavanserin profile for conditions such as schizophrenia. That's another multibillion dollar opportunity that doesn't factor in anything about PDP or ADP. There is so much potential here so Acadia will likely have to partner (at least outside of PDP) because it's too much for a small company to handle. I'm still sticking to my $35-40 buyout estimate which I know seems low if you factor in the longer term (which I am admittedly not doing). I think the M&A chatter will pick up in 2014. 2013 has been all about executing and putting this asset in the best position possible. And they have done that. Any improvement in NDA timelines, EU requirements or unexpected position pipeline events could bring more value.
I don't see a $35-$40 price being reasonable because I can't imagine a deal getting done without top line results from ADP. If ADP works, plus secondary endpoints are met, its a game changer as ADP, SCZO, Bi Polar, etc. are worth at least 4 to 5 times the PDP market (way too large to bridge with a CVR structure as ADP et al is the dog in value whereas PDP is the tail).
Acadia would not sell based on the value of PDP only, when we are less than 6 months from knowing ADP top line results. (I know you and the rest of the posters think it will be 12 to 18 months but I have reason to believe otherwise but obviously can be proved wrong)
Similarly, JNJ or any other buyer would not get BOD approval to pay for the ADP opportunity without at least top line results and maybe the NDA or sNDA submittal would be required.
1. No buyout until ADP results are in plus FDA process is decided
2. Value with ADP results is 4 to 5 Xs PDP.
3. Conclusion - no buyout until late 2014 and by then even the PDP value will be higher since NDA for PDP will be imminent.
1) Article not Artical 2) There are many large pharmas that need a product like Pima. I recently spoke with 3 sales leaders from large pharmas focused on CNS that are expecting downsizing in their group over the next year. I asked/suggested, why not just buy ACAD and grow your way out. Seems like a no-brainer.