trouble is that you could have made the case for a Real Estate bubble in 1999 and would have missed out on the last 3-4 years of appreciation. Tops of bubbles are notoriously difficult to call.
I would look for a pop in ST interest rates back to the 2-3% range as a the trigger. You would then expect to see listing inventory climb. Inventory climbs first and only slowly do sellers begin to lower prices. You would also expect a increase in the 30 day delinquency rates. Dataquick News provides monthly updates. That number is still low.
previous booms in California have lasted about 4 years: 1975-1979; 1986-1989; 1996-2000; 2002 to 2005/06??? the next year will be very telling, IMO
I have been thinking about selling and renting too!. . .In Walnut Creek, apartments are giving one or two months rent to move in . . .Condo's that were renting for $1600 a few years ago are renting for $1200 now, and still are empty. Everyone who wants to buy a house/condo is with low rates, and 100% finance. I sell, bank the equity - put it out in 5% dividend stocks or bonds, pay the $1200 rent, and still have money left over. . .this real estate bubble has to end.
I agree completely. I live in San Diego and bought three years ago only to find out that my condo has doubled in value in that time period. It makes me nervous. I have been thinking about selling and sitting on the capital gains while renting. Southern California is a bubble waiting to burst in my opinion.
Agree - for $120K, you could go to 4 star restaurants every night!. . .the Bay Area is full of people who are taking home equity loans to re-model. . .contractors just about have unlisted numbers. . .when this all ends, there will be a lot of nice houses (with re-models) on the market for bargain prices!!. . .bubble can't last forever.
I just did 100% financing on my home, but it only cost $165,000. In addition I have a fixed rate and am paying much more than the min. payment. The people you're talking about are idiots. Good for your business... I work for a bank as well. but a little more booring job network engineer. wish I could break out and do this stock market crap all day...
I live near Concord (3o min south) and work for a bank selling foreclosure properties. The current market in Northern & Southern California will end very badly. I would not be suprised to see declines of 20-40%, maybe more in the central valley & Sacramento, sometime in the next 3-5 years.
Way too many 100% loans that are adjustable rate and interest only. People are effectively leasing their $600K starter homes. Just like buying internet stocks on margin. Any big pop in short term rates (ie 150 basis points) will burst the bubble here.