, but in an unattractive market. the current valuation is hard to ignore, but i don't know enough about the prospects to make an informed decision gegarding a purchase today.in that only a small percentage of leases are expiring short term, i don't think the bottom will fall out, but the market is telling me something.
VNO seems to swing for the fences; they hit a home run or strike out. They hit the home run in purchaing C. Smith offices in Washington DC, and struck out with Americold and PGE. IMHO these guys are risktakes, and one has to take on occaisonal hit.
I'm no expert on cold storage, but it is an essential service, even though the recent results have been horrendous. If there is excess capacity, no one will invest in new facilities and natural growth will evetually fill the space. Here is a case where the Earth's warming trend is in our favor. VNO's superior financial status should enable them to weather the cold storage storm. Its somewhat analagous to the situation you find in hotels. GLTA
>>>If the 3rd and 4th Qtr 2002 earnings matches 3rd and 4th Qtr 2001, VNO will need to increase dividend or do a special dividend in order to stay in compliance with the 90% payout requirement. <<<
Sorry- correction. I got my REITS mixed up. If VNO earnings matches 3rd & 4th Qtr 2001, they should not be required to do a special dividend in order to stay in compliance.
The issue will be how much and whether they display confidence to fix it quarterly going forward or leave options open by paying a special dividend.
I am hoping they increase by minimum 5% to $2.78.
If there is any balance put to special at EOY.
>>>In a few days the dividend should be increased or I should say 10/26 is the normal date for annoucement of increases. This will be most interesting to watch and see what is going to happen on that front. I have a speculation of what I think the increase should be but will wait to see like everyone else. <<<
If the 3rd and 4th Qtr 2002 earnings matches 3rd and 4th Qtr 2001, VNO will need to increase dividend or do a special dividend in order to stay in compliance with the 90% payout requirement.
I disagree with your interpretation of what the market is telling you.
This thing is 20% of its high, and down 10% in the past month while the broad market is rallying. That is nothing but bad.
Greedy, mistake-prone, management is part of the problem. Poor trends and outlook for the office market is the other part.
I have heard a few people today talk about a WSJ article talking about how corproations are liquidating their real estate holdings here by selling them to REITs. I haven't read it. If the big guys are selling do you want to be buying?
The trouble with the long term view is how do you know you are wrong?
I bit the bullet a few weeks ago and am glad to be out of this thing.
You probably have bought one of the best reits out there for the long term. VNO's two primary office markets are midtown Manhattan and DC/No. VA which are two of the best office markets to own long term. Midtown Manhattan vacancy rate very low and while No. VA has higher increased governmt spending should increase demand for space proximate to DC.
Other aspects of VNO offer promise over the long term.
We should be getting a dividend increase announcement on or around 10/26.