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Citizens Republic Bancorp, Inc Message Board

  • wimudbug wimudbug Feb 28, 2009 2:59 AM Flag

    A little recent history

    I've been involved in this mutt (thankfully got out at over $25) actively and passively for over a decade, and it seems some need a bit of history. I'd posted over 4 years ago that this was a train on a track to nowhere, and it hasn't been going nowhere, it's derailed. WOOD (shouting intended) and others can dissect their numbers every which way to Pluto and back, but take off the numeric blinders for a moment and look at some common sense:

    Fact: Fartman took over in 2/2002 with a PPS of nearly $32. Stock muddles along for about 4 years.

    Fact: Grossly overpaid to expand into Oakland County in 2004. Tried to buy market share, but gains little traction.

    Fact: Announcement of Republic takeover on 6/26/06. Closed at $27.03 Closing on 6/27/06 was $24.66. Granted, this isn't uncommon for acquirer to drop, but not necessarily common, either. Stock begins to free-fall over the next couple of years

    Fact: Nash, hand-picked messiah of Fartman announces departure from Sun Trust end of June/first of July '06. Sun Trust closes on 6/30 at $76.06, closes on 7/28 @ $79.62. Hmmmmm.

    Fact: Nash named new CEO on 1/22/09. Closes at $1.89. 2/1 takes reins, closes 2/2 at $1.08, closes today at $0.75.

    That close today, plus another quarter, will get you something off the Value Menu at McD's. Folks, you can hope all you want, but this donkey ain't gonna fly for countless reasons. First, the Street spoke volumes when there wasn't any kind of bounce when Fartman "stepped aside" Why? Status quo: Fartman named his hand-picked Golden Girl his own successor, plus he's staying on as board chair--nothing's really changed. Second, Michigan economy (read, Big Three and their suppliers/employees, foreclosures, unemployment, stoop governor et.al.), as has been hashed and rehashed ad nauseum. Third, Wisconsin and Iowa have propped this thing up for years, and the capable heads of these markets have been jettisoned at the start of the new year. Fourth, see how many banks in this strata that are successful with a retail banker driving the bus (probably can count them on one hand, err, finger). Fifth, any ag lending in Wisconsin and Iowa is now tenuous, given the fact that commodities markets are in a world of hurt compared to even 6 months ago--take a look at milk contracts. Sixth, this isn't a bank that's "too large to fail". Seventh, there isn't a "white knight" that will ride to the rescue, given the footprint in which CRBC operates. Eighth, don't forget Michigan's little step-brothers in the Rust Belt, Ohio and Indiana (remember Obama's first public appearance in a county in Indiana that had the highest unemployment rate in the country?). Need I go on??

    For those of you who want to go camp on the Weatherball's doorstep and get an audience with the Ivory Tower, just remember that's time out of your life that you'll never get back. Thump your chest with multiple posts to yourself that, "WHOOOHOOO, THE ROCKET'S LEAVING THE LAUNCHING PAD, SHORTY'S LOSING HIS ARSE, WE'RE GOING ABOVE $1 TODAY," and the like. If you're excited about going over $1, you'd better have 6 figures invested before euphoria sets in. Fact remains that Fartman drove this bus over the cliff, and all that's left is the autopsy. Go ahead and play long if you want: if you want to see this go to what it would cost you for a phone call or less, hang in there. Again, do all the numeric slicing and dicing you want: fact remains that this thing was corkscrewed from nearly $32 PPS barely 7 years ago into the ground, and most of the damage done prior to the financial markets meltdown. History is repeating itself, given the lack of change and direction from on high.

    Run, don't walk.

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    • Thanks Wood.

    • How solid in your opinion is the dividend assuming they stay in business? Do they have to pay it regardless or can they cut it at any time? Thank you.

    • I tend to agree with wimud. I am a previous 12year employee of this company and your take on Mrs. Botox Nash is right on the money. She is the #1 reason I left and I fully expect her to drive what's left of this bank into the ground. I feel sorry for the emloyees and shareholders who have to depend on this leader to bring this bank back to life. She drove 90% of the good retail producers out of the bank and I don't know how she is expected to handle taking the helm with additional responsibility? This bank is doing business in a tough market but she should have kept the people happy that could produce results for her. I sold most of my shares at 22 but I'm sorry I didn't sell it all! Now I'm looking very long on 2000 shares. I still say George Butvilas or Randy Peterson would have been a much better choice. They need producers at this bank! People who are on the ground generating business, even durring these tough times, no excuses! Now I work down the street and pick away at my old portfolio one customer at a time..... By the way....been doing this a long time and still don't have a forclosure to my credit.

      • 2 Replies to rockko1
      • i've ran and owned a business for 25 yrs, and employees like you , i wish i never met. you don't make the co, no one is this GREAT producer, i fired my top salesman not because of his sales figures but because he betrayed me. you think you and a few friends are the company, your not, no one person or gruop ARE the co. You are self centered, non cooperative, immature, trouble makers, who endanger the group as a whole with one sided, egotistical arrogant thinking. there is a trend that runs through your type and thats jealousy. Always having problems following directions, always the only idea, always taking chances on other peoples money, yet you never own anything. you get me sick, pick away at thoses leads you are stealing from an entity who gave you full employment for many years. you are an asshole rock. the world does not revolve around you and your buddies, you could buy the bank now if you were so good, or you buddies so good, face it . your a small town loser, that was a pain in the ass to manage, a problem child. go away. give you infinite gift to your new employer, am sure they don't understand you either.those dumb asses. your life long conflict with your father and all authority figures is your problem, face it.

      • SOUR GRAPES, YOU REALLY KNOW WHY YOU HAD TO LEAVE

    • Thanks for the info.
      The combined equity makes no difference to me, but it looks better on paper.
      Just like all the Goodwill they are carrying, that is useless.
      Only shows what they overpaid for their foolish purchases.

    • they sell out of the margin postions in the morning, so that drives down the price, i got clipped for 800 shares, shill over 10,000 shr.

      benz, good to here from somebody that has vision. i agree with you 100%. $5 on the up side, is very reasonable, i'm rooting for you. i'm in with about 75.000 shrs at $3. looking for $8.99 in 2011.

      the tree

    • Kristine from CRBC returned my call - $7.80 tang. book value common and preferred. $5.69 tang. book value common only.

    • i would be interested in an info from crbc on b/v, i watch that closely as you know. my idea has been it would go down to $4, but at that time the reserve would be built and the company w/b profitable. or the turn point.

      there is a 38 million profit per q if you don't have the reserve adj, and say you have 10m in adj, a 28m q profit would increase the value, greatly.

      but it is wrong to publish anything other than the q4 balances. so something is wrong. if there was a desired adj for y/e, it s/b put in q4, or disclosed, full dis closure is expected. tree

    • I'm averaged down to $7.62 and reluctant to buy more. I can hold for a few years.

      Tomorrow I will want to buy more.

      In April I will be pissed. What's a guy to do with this pile?

    • That is exactly what I want to know. I have a call in to Kristine Brenner - CRBC Investor Relations (810)257-2506. Call her up - let's get some answers.

    • i would say seeing the book value at $5+ there will be a large write down in q1. but if with that adj. they say "thats it", the stock may go up.

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