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Citizens Republic Bancorp, Inc Message Board

  • Benz_w Benz_w May 13, 2009 10:10 AM Flag

    I"m OUT ......

    I am just following my own advice…

    Sold out all my shares that I bought @ around .70. This is why there has been so much extra volume this last week. Also sold all my WCF that I bought @ around $10. In the short term I see a BIG pull back coming this summer. (nothing is really better out there) If you hold your CRBC shares for a few years you will see $5 + again!

    I wish everyone well and I hope I am wrong and CRBC goes to $10 this year and you all make a ton of $$$.

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    • Great web site for CRBC info!

      First - I think Citizens is a good bank, and if you buy and hold long term (3-5 years) you should do very well (if you buy at the current price). The reason Citizens price is depressed is its commercial loan & retail business in Michigan and the Midwest. “NO” one knows how bad it is going to get in Michigan over the next 2-3 years. If they raise the tax rate to 6.9% on people making 60,000+ in MI - more & more business owners are going to leave. Michigan has a “black eye” when investors from other areas look at business in the state. They see a state that has “rebel unions”, a state govt controlled by unions (private and public) and large cities that demand more taxpayer money “welfare” for their votes. CRBC should be $7-8 a share right now, but is trading at $1.50.

    • Check the following link. It is the 8K (5/5/2009) in the Bank's website, under Investor Relations, SEC Filings.

      http://www.snl.com/Cache/c7749839.htm

      After reading what it states about liquidity, capital and portfolio quality, I decided to buy.

    • I was in CRBC for a swing trade.I bought in at $1.90 only to sell this week for $1.48...during the week that I owned the stock,I did not do much research on the bank other than go through the website and review the message boards and read the general opinions on the stock.I do not live in the region but I think the main problem with the bank is the fact that it does most of it's business in Michigan.The balance sheet is not pretty and the prospect's for the area it serves is poor.My guess is that most people outside the area it serves can find a better investment.Correct me if I am wrong.Who would feel comfortable investing in one of the most depressed area's in the US? GLTA

    • Hi, Thanks for very your thoughts on CRBC. I was initially in it for a trade and now I have double digit % loss on this trade. I have time in my hand and no rush. My only concern is health of this bank and would it survive given the environment.

      I went through their earning report but I was not able to decipher much out of it. I am still learning to make sense of earning reports.

      Does CRBC has exposure to risky bet? How is/was their lending policy?
      Will CRBC survive? Does it have enough liquidity.

      Other regional banks like CNB and ZION need liquidity based on stress test. Was CRBC also part of stress test?

      Of the 161 companies outside the 19 stress-tested institutions, 59 are going to need about $12.8 billion in capital to meet government standards

      Atop the list is Huntington Bancshares (NASDAQ: HBAN), a Columbus, Ohio institution that will need about $1.6 billion.

      Similarly, Montgomery, Ala.-based Colonial BancGroup (NYSE: CNB) also is among the banks at the top of the list, requiring $840 million to meet the guidelines.

      Zions Bancorporation (NASDAQ: ZION), which needs $1.3 billion; Marshall & Ilsley (NYSE: MI), $1.2 billion; and M&T Bank (NYSE: MTB), $800 million

      Did CRBC participate in stress test? If so does any one have any information about how it faired and whats the capital it needs to meet government standards?

    • Benz

      When you say BIG pullback, do you have any opinion on how much the pullback would be?

      • 2 Replies to rifinc
      • I think we COULD see 6,500 or less on the DOW again. I have no idea if CRBC will drop below $1 again, but if it does I will be a BIG buyer. (The question is - can Treasury keep this market propped up so the current admin. sell a positive spin "green shoots"??)

        I normally buy depressed stock and hold for a few years - and sell when they make a recovery for large returns, but these are not normal times.

      • I know this question isn't for me, but I think/hope that we pull back to below 1.30. I own this stock at several different levels but I sold my 1.18 level at 1.85 and would like to take that spread again and 1.30 is low enough for more acquisition.

        Why we missed the move. It was my fault and people like me that sold our positions between .70 and up in order to take profits last week instead of holding for longer game. I think this stock has a local following (michigan)and the car news drastically effects this stock. I think we will push past three dollars by the end of next quarter when they have stated their plans for tarp and future dividends. Oh yeah and housing stops falling out of the sky.

        my opinion.

    • Kills me to say it but you probably made the right move. Market not looking good but who knows, it changes on a dime.

 

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