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Citizens Republic Bancorp, Inc Message Board

  • cabogordon cabogordon Dec 23, 2009 1:07 PM Flag

    potential new long here : questions

    1. what will be the catalyst for next move up ?

    2. Tarp repayment or coversion into trup ?

    3. How long has this been sub 1 ? what is the date before they get delisted ?

    4. what got me intereted was the 9.4mm purchas in AH. are people adding or was that just market makers balancing books at end of the day

    5. could this go BK ?

    thanks and merry xmas

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    • As to 1, who knows, who cares. Good news on quarterly earnings, preearnings release, TARP to TRUPs, sector recognition with a sector move up, are all possibilities.

      As to 2, the question of repayment of TARP seems premature for the smaller regionals, but TARP to TRUPs is a possibility here. That might, depending on the accounting, cause a one time gain and it could boost the TCE some perhaps. The more I think about it the more I think it might make sense here since the one weakness is their troubled asset ratio here, which is not terrible just a bit on the high side. That ratio is basically comparing the NPAs to their reserves plus the TCE, so increasing the TCE reduces, ie, improves, that ratio.

      As to 3, look at the chart. I believe they have 180 days from the deficiency notice which would be sometime in March 2010, though getting an extension for another 180 days I would think should not be that hard here if they do need it.

      As to 4, market junky answered that.

      As to 5, it is highly unlikely that this one will fail at this stage, their ratios are strong. If there is a further spike in NPAs then obviously it or any other bank like that could fail, but that would have to be a big spike here since they have good capital ratios.

      Merry Christmas to you too.

    • Citizens Republic Bancorp (CRBC): a bank with conservative underwriting, NPAs have been stabilizing and are still less than 6%, a substantial portion of it is reserved, management is also confident that they are more than halfway through the snake. They have a solid deposit base and leadership position in Michigan and it trades at less than 0.4 tangible book and 3x pre-tax pre-credit earnings. I know, I know, it is Michigan. However, for the same reason the competition was decimated and, believe it or not, their deposits are growing double digits.

    • You appear to be somewhat new to this board, so I'll be polite.

      First, the whole concept of "MMs" as explained in the "books" is dead.

      I've explained many times in the past the mystery behind these "HUGE" AH prints. The print everyone has been talking about was reported as "TRF", which is not even an exchange. That print came from one of the ATSs or Dark-Pools, and was an aggregation of many trades made during the day. Now, it still is important, but the fact that it was reported after-hours is meaningless.