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Citizens Republic Bancorp, Inc Message Board

  • skiman4318 skiman4318 Apr 7, 2010 5:50 PM Flag

    First Quarter Results

    Insom, Market Junkie, Kabt..What are your thoughts?

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    • Geez, you like em risky, good luck. FWIW, I sold out my TSFG shares after they announced they wanted authorization for 1.3B shares, it turned out it may have been at the short term bottom but I don´t care, I got just about all my capital back and could not put up with it.

      Besides, I make a lot more money on the larger regionals and large financial stocks, ones like CRBC and TSFG are small for my own tastes, though I like CRBC and have a similar type timeset on it as you. Plus I put it into a small Midwest bank that has such strong metrics I am amazed it hasn´t been noticed yet, I mean they had NPAs below 4% that were down, good reserves and strong capital ratios, they ain´t going to dilute is my guess.

      Right now I am trying to decide whether to unload all my RF or just the part I need to raise my liquidity, that Morgan Keegan scandal worries me and they were always the bad boy of my lot, though at sub $15 or so I don´t like to part with ones like that so I might just sell maybe a third of my shares or so to get some liquidity. Gotta buy stuff for my trip and all of that.

    • Well skiman, on yahoo they said analyst estimates were for a loss of $.14, I would be happy with anything from that to a small gain here.

      What I will be looking at are things like whether their NTBV has stopped declining, their capital ratios and NPA ratios, to see if they got through this quarter without deterioration from Q4. My guess is on balance these indicates might be flattish, or slightly down or slightly up, the latter I would see as very bullish for the stock. After that I would think their core earnings may be just okay here, but it should be clear enough that in better times that should improve for them.

      Their 30 to 90 day defaults being down would be nice too, and any talk of some NPLs going back to performing encouraging.

      It may not be time yet for the bells and whistles to start ringing, but maybe it is, we´ll see with things like signs of any writeups, investment gains, etc. to come.