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Citizens Republic Bancorp, Inc Message Board

  • skiman4318 skiman4318 Jan 27, 2011 4:10 PM Flag

    F'n Toast

    .28 lost, you have to be kidding

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    • Peristenton, see my post below in response to kavdiv, and as I am sure you already know, nothing in my posts should be taken as a buy or sell recommendation, you should always do your own due diligence and reach your own decisions.

    • <<..kabtb which banks do you think are most undervalued now?>>

      Why, are you looking for short candidates? :-)

    • kabtb which banks do you think are most undervalued now?

    • Just to clarify, I am not suggesting these websites are not useful in making your own charts, I found the one on the Texas ratio to be quite helpful, and a few of the better ones that gave some metrics and warned of problems banks to be likewise useful, and there was another that simply listed banks that had FDIC agreements or actions taking against them, another key warning sign.

      For me it was all about excluding the dogs, as much as finding the better ones that were worth investing in.

      If it is on some risk of failure list that uses some real metrics that are important, it was highly doubtful it would ever make it onto anything but my own risk of failure list, and it would take a whole lot of work or thought for me to put it even on my second tier watchlist, unless, of course, it was a website I gave no credibility to and they gave little or no understandable metrics or analysis behind their conclusion.

    • FWIW, IMHO nothing beats making your own chart and lists of the banks you own, your watchlist ones, the ones on your potential watchlist and any you have considered but excluded as ones that might fail, and do a chart for each catagory.

      That is what I did during this downturn before moving into hold and long mode, and it sure helped me.

      The key data points I noted were things like their chart, the sharecount and any dilution to date, their capital structure picture, their statutory ratios, their TCE, their Texas ratio, and, of course, their NPA ratio, the one I focus on most being NPAs to total assets.

      Then I updated it from the earnings release.

      There are some data sources I found useful, with qualification, I remember one in particular that gave Texas ratios, but I am past actively following things like that and don't know if it is still up to date, and besides, nothing beats your own footwork.

      And reading those earnings releases can give you much more than the numbers, things like a general sense of how conservative their lending was, whether they are dragging their feet, Which, incidently, warning signs of arrogance or denial, etc.

      It may seem like a lot of work, but in the long run for me it was a real time saver. First, I had to do well or face going back to work as I live off a relatively small portfolio that living expenses were eating into. Second, I was interested in it anyway, and to do it I had to look through hundreds of candidates, and, of course, avoid emotion and hopeful investing and exclude the weaker ones.

      BTWm now I don't even have those lists, just the ones on the ones I still own, and am not actively following it at all. It is only ones like CRBC that do things like default on TARP dividends and then give their management big raises that I would have to follow, so, after being sick of them I just sell like I did this one just before the earnings release.

      The others are my main herd though, and, until the economy goes baD or too many financials go bad to loose lending, I am not too worried about them.

      There are dangers in looking for one source to do it all for you, not the least of which is failing to do your own due diligence. Of course, there are those who are good at doing it that way, but that is a different style of investing than mine. Another danger is that they fail to update a key number on one you make a decision on, or miss some crucial thing that puts it into perspective, etc.

      So along with not recommending stocks other than, after being asked, ones I think worth doing your own due diligence on, and making your own decision on, I see the one great source search as the same.

      Of course, many investors don't have the time, and others rely on analysts which works for them when they find good ones they understand, so it is really a question of style.

      Developing those kinds of lists, BTW, has also helped develop and improve my own style, not least of which by forming key limitations such as a limit on the NPAs you invest in, which, again, is just what works for me.

      Wish you luck.

    • Without conversion of TARP to common I get 3Q 2011 trough TCE of 79 cents per share.

      If they do convert TARP to common I get 3Q 2011 trough TCE of 88 cents per share, and that doesn't even incorporate the fact that they won't be paying interest, so earnings would be higher than the number I am using in calculation.

    • Well, they have run up quite a bit recently, I don't know short term and I am not recommending them either way except for doing your own due diligence on, but I am still positive and still holding my core positions in FITB and KEY. Another I never bought, and have not followed but was positive on is HBAN but I don't know its current situation, the last earnings release I skimmed looked good on it.

      In addition, two much smaller thus more speculative and volatile plays I still own and am positive on are NBBC and LNBB, though these have run up quite a bit and short term, wow, they are all over the place.

      But my basis is so low on these stocks, and I have taken enough profits in bank stocks along the way, that I am comfortable holding them long despite any downturns along the way.

      Basically, my current plan is to hold them all until the banks in general get overpriced, and peak out in more conservative and normal earnings growth. They tend to then turn to eating the crazy grass of bad loans again or just start topping out and overpaying for acquisitions to gain growth. Then I just unload them all, and get to unloading other financials, and retail topping out, etc., and start adjusting my portfolio for a possible down cycle.

      IMHO, they all tend to run in herds, and either eat crazy grass in bad loans like in the early 1990 downturn or the last one and run off the cliffs together, or they just peak out and have troubles after acquisition sprees and have mild recessions and significant but less extreme downturns like in 2001 to 2003. Either way I don't want them so I tend to sell them all early enough to avoid that ride down.

      On the way up, I sell any even earlier as soon as they show they have brain damage from smashing on the rocks below, if their bellies are more full of crazy grass bad loans than I anticipated and/or if they start doing what I see as antishareholder moves like this one. The above stocks I have held have shown little or no signs of any of that, but if they do I will unload the ones that do at any moment.

      Many of the larger banks I am positive on but other than very small holdings in XLF, an ETF, and what I have left in BAC, which is shakey, I don't own those. Their pricing on many of the best big brand name ones seem a bit too high to me. They diluted too, and I don't go for the smaller run ups on ones like that, but some of those might be worth looking into as well.

      Of course, nothing I post should be taken as a buy or sell recommendation and you should always do your own due diligence and reach your own conclusions that are right for you.





      n

    • Kat,

      Which banks are you positive these days.

      Thanks,

      Kavdiv

    • Hello Kabtb,

      Dont even bother with capital raise.

      If there is a situation like that they would have to convert TARP to common.

      Then it will be an absolute blood bath.

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