Supposedly, you don't short stocks. Why do you spend your time harassing the supporters of this one? Another question I have since you claim to be so great at statistics. Why would make the statement that RDWR will be below 50 on Jan. 31? You can NEVER have 100% reliability on your numbers. There is always the possibility that an "outlier" will occur on that day. You may know something about statistics but you have a lot to learn about the market if you think that's all that matters. The randomness you speak of is what makes or breaks stocks. XYZ announces a new partnership and the price of XYZ jumps. It is a random event unpredictable by its very nature that creates buying intrest. Looking at RDWR's short past doesn't seem appropriate to me when you consider this. I won't lie to you I have some statistics experience mostly from a design of experiments perspective (t-test, ANOVA, etc.). But what I do know is that you can't be SURE of anything!