RDWR's price is dependent on FFIV because they
are in the same category ("Industry" is the proper
term I think). Ever hear the expression "A rising tide
floats all boats?" If all competitors in an industry are
doing well, it is a strong sign that the industry as a
whole is a healthy one to be in--it is growing well
enough to support multiple competitors. Consequently,
any company with a healthy business plan in that
industry stands a good chance to make money, gain share,
or be bought out on the way up by a bigger fish. All
these are good if you own any or all stocks in the
While I haven't studied this industry
long enough to know all the players, FFIV seems to be
the big fish in pond and most investing in this
industry (judging by the posts I read) see it as the
bellweather for the industry.
I've actually used this
to my advantage recently on CNXT, using a contrarian
strategy. BRCM (overvalued in my opinion) comes out with
their earnings about two weeks before CNXT. BRCM
recently didn't beat the whisper number, and not only did
BRCM's stock price suffer (near term), but a number of
other stocks which investors viewed as being in the
same category (even though they aren't when you get
down to brass tacks) suffered immediately (and
wrongly) following the news (PMCS and CNXT among them).
CNXT took a 20 point hit on the stock in two weeks(it
was at 83), and I bought more in the mid 60s, and
sold it back at low 80's in 6 days time, really only
expecting to sell it in the mid to high 70s.
take home lesson: watch all the stocks within an
industry in which you own one, and it woudln't hurt to
watch the bellweathers for the internet infrastructure
build out as well. Watch CSCO, LU for overall health,
and FFIV, ATON, if you own RDWR. Anyone have any
Happy investing. Oh, yeah, I'd buy more.
Just to give my opinion about these B2B stocks, I
think we have a play here in the hottest sector at this
moment. RDWR is trendeing higher, but the big move is
still to come, I agree completely with that.
this time I am holding my stock mainly for 2 reasons :
The competitor earnings of FFIV yesterday are
booming, and RDWR is to match the growth of these
companies. Secondly I was never so bullish and sure about a
stock or sector then for this one now.
I bought FFIV in the lower 60's and got jittery at
75$ so I took my profit. I will never make that
misstake again, and I had the nice opportunity to step
into RDWR into the lower 40's. To high you will think,
we'll very soon we will know the potential ahead and
reflections that have been made by other posters on this
board were "ridiculously high" in the regions of 125 to
150$. I do not know if this is ridiculous by year
Coverage of this stock is only starting at present and we
will see a lot of other brokers stepping in with
ratings at least strong buy.
Business is growing
fast, and motto in this new fast growing sector will be
: if you can't beat them,....
party for us longs is coming!
there's no crime in taking a
But in my opinion, RDWR is backing and filling and
positioning itself for a major rally, we're about ready to
The current online trader seems to have no patience
for normal moves in stock pricing.
valuation by it's underwriters as a consensus "Strong Buy"
is significant, as that's not always the
RDWR is extremely undervalued at it's current price
and the "load balancing" sector is vital to any
serious companies future in marketing it's
RDWRs been around longer than it's competitors and it's
market share and positioning is greater then most...this
should be reflected in earnings on Nov. 4th.
know this...that's why they're positioning themselves
for the run up.
Watch and learn...
click here for a chart comparison: They seem to
With all the upgrade & coverage, RDWR should
close higher. It is down a little. It is not good sign,
at least for the short term. Frankly, I do think
this stock is under valued compared with similar
stocks, but my opinion does not influence the market. You
have to take some profits.
With blowout earnings from FFIV, it will carry
RDWR to the next level as well:
ATON, which has
a cap of $3B, had a greater qtr. % wise but still
did not have blowout #s. However, their qtr. revenue
was actually less than FFIV's. Thus, FFIV should at
least propel to $2-2.5B bases on their awesome
Now, RDWR had maintained a valuation of 50-60% of FFIV
since they were discovered per CBS Marketwatch. Hence,
doing the math...RDWR will have a cap of $1-1.25B cap,
which equates to a per share price of $68 to $89. RDWR,
like FFIV, should turn profitable this Qtr. and should
maintained their valuation with FFIV going forward (at least