I have about 30 stocks on a portfolio that I am
watching. They mostly have to do with these new breeds of
routers from cmtn to jnpr. Also have all of these "speed
increasers" like FFIV, RDWR, JINC, etc. I am really not sure
just what JCDA does. I do know that there are a bunch
of these companies comming to the market in droves
and commanding huge market caps. I have a few
Can these companies ever make enough money to justify
their high market cap?
Will there be some big
How much of these high flying ipo's are depending on
And just what it the hell do all of these companies
I have my answers to my own questions which i will
post here and would appreciate some responses to help
with my ignorance.
I hear people talking about
the next CSCO but don't see it yet. When you talk
about an INTC, AOL, CSCO, DELL, SUNW, MSFT, etc, you
have to take into account the fact that these
companies touch the masses. There is no limit to their
market. I definitely see limits in the market of the
companies I question. I am not sure the market can provide
the long term revenue to justify the high value of
the company. Lets look at a comparison.
Revs: From 4.01 mill to 6.3 mill
(730k) to (403k)
RDWR Revs : From 1.7 mill to 5.5
Profit: From (1 mill) to (178k)
: From 3.0 mill to 14.1 mill
Profit: From (2.3
mill) to (6.7 mill)
However impressive the
increases may be in Revs, I don't see an CSCO like long
distance growth anywhere in the 30 stocks I have listed. I
cannot see JNPR stepping into CSCO's back yard and being
worth what they are. What happened to COMS, CS,
I too hope RDWR and JCDA take off but will that be
the end? Where will they be a year from now. A 10
Bill market cap is one thing but the Revs to justify
it are another. Can these markets really be that
big? I think that the REVS and Profit on RDWR and JCDA
will be great next week. It makes all the sense in the
world that they have waited for the tech conference
because the news is sooo good! But I want to know who are
What do all of these companies do
that make them a winner. I understand they make some
form of software of hardware that makes the net run
faster, but how long can that last? What is more
important software or hardware? Who has the best
technology? It is really confusing to a person with little
tech background that realizes the place to make money
is in tech. I really want to jump in with both feet
but need some help from you guys and gals that
understand this stuff and how it works.
Sorry for the
long post and thanks in advance for the
earnings be announced? There seems to be a
discrepancy and I'm hoping you will know for sure. I've been
reading your posts for awhile and am impressed with you
take on RDWR.
taking. I thought it was over yesterday. It
appears the resistant is at 55 again. When RDWR was in
the 40s range, the resistant was at 45. RDWR had
reached 45 three times before it broke it. RDWR has
reached 55 twices already. I guess the next time RDWR
will break this resistant.
The following numbers include the following
companies: RBAK, CMTN, JNPR, FFIV, VIGN, BRCM, SCMR, FDRY,
JDSU, BRCD, VRSN, ICGE, JNIC, RDWR, JCDA. I included
the revs that have been reported and are verifiable.
Please keep in mind this doesn't include the 13+ bill
IPO of AKAM.
Total market cap 122.03
Total Revenues 874.6 million
Total Profits 26.7
That is only 15 of these super new, super hot
companies that are just skyrocketing in price!
I like to
be as optimistic as possible and I like to think
that all that money is going in those stocks for a
good reason, maybe reasons I don't
Those are some pretty unbalanced numbers. I need some
logical discussion on how that market cap is justifiable.
at valuation. None of the hot stocks current P/E
or lack of it can justify the market cap. But the
market is looking for future leaders, not past ones.
That is why no matter how cheap the old industrials
are & good value, the stock price will not go up
because investors are not going to put their money in a
safe deposit box.
I did not make any money by
betting on cheap stocks last year. This year I follow the
new paradime & I made alot of money. I bought meself
a Mercedes that I would never use my salary to buy.
Stop trying to reason & follow the crowd.