I agree the deal with Lucent is clearly a step in the right direction. I didn't study the article but Lucent partners with a number of companies. Is Radware going to be the only offering they have in this area? What will incent the sales people to push RDWR's product? Even if RDWR's products are superior from a technology perspective doesn't mean LU sales people will push it. Customers will have to ask for it by name. Therefore it is important to have direct sales people generating interest and demand. If LU fills the order, fine. But I've worked for a reseller and a mfg in the past. Resellers (i realize LU is much more than a reseller) sell either what the customer asks for OR whatever they make the most money on OR whatver product is the most reliable and easiest to support. The reseller won't sell a product if they can't get support on it or if it is difficult to deal with the mfg. If they have to call Israel for support or to get answers to any questions it will frustrate them. That is why I think they need to have a very strong US presence. I just don't know what they have in the US besides sales offices. Where does tech support and order fulfillment take place? One last comment. I worked for a US company that acquired an Israeli company. The Israeli company supposedly had the greatest technology in the business(networking) but struggled because they used mostly an indirect sales model with very few feet on the street. In addition, customers did not feel comfortable buying from an Israeli company when they could get something from Cisco or Bay that worked almost as well. My point is that it won't be easy for this company to compete on technology alone. IMO they need to move their headquarters to the US, hire US executives that speak English and get a direct sales force out there promoting their products. If they want to keep mfg in Israel fine.
I am definitely not going to short RDWR. I have owned it since 27 and traded it a few times. I just think they will have a hard time keeping up with F5, ATON and FDRY's growth rates. I would not hold this stock for long periods of time until they show that they are growing at a similar rate. JMO
Pretty much agree with your whole post but 'specially the portion about sequential growth rates. The point that you made about not holding RDWR long term until they can show growth rates comparable to their competitors is of SUPREME IMPORTANCE (I don't believe some investors see it that way-- but Icon, you and I see this point exactly the same)!
I feel that if they can show growth similar to the others, this stock will be unstoppable, but to achieve that growth, they made have to take a few of the steps you mentioned in your post.
Who knows, they may already be in the process of implementing some of them as we speak.