Radware Ltd. (RDWR) Message Board

you are viewing a single comment's thread.

">view the rest of the posts
  • shushkidude shushkidude Dec 1, 1999 3:50 PM Flag

    another MM game for Shushkidude 2

    ive been in the business for the past 21 years
    and i know how it works..these days mm have almost no
    affect on liquid stocks..no mkt maker takes a sizable
    position in any stock, these days are long over since they
    changed the rules and force them to post 99% of all
    trades..no mm has the capital to build a position in such a
    volatile mkt..sure, they can play around a little with
    stops if theyre close to the mkt price, but the bottom
    line is that id a stock is strong , they wont be able
    to keep it from going up and if a stock is weak they
    want be able to prevent it from going down, also, if a
    stock goes down and there are real buyers, no mm
    activity will influence the price for more than a few
    seconds..the reality is that rdwr is going down because its
    overvalued, not because mm manipulate it..these guys are
    laughing everyday when they read how people think theyre
    so powerful...they have been transformed to being
    posting clerks with the new rules a few yrs ago..live and
    learn, we all do..everyday

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Okay, let's say mm manipulation is not as
      powerful as folks out there thought, and RDWR is down due
      to valuation reasons. Can you provide a solid (NOT a
      RANDOM number, say, low 20's) analysis to convince folks
      in this board that RDWR is not worth even 42, but
      only 30 or 22, etc.

      Since you're in the
      business for 21 yrs, I am willing to trust your analysis,
      if your analysis is indeed trustworthy.

      • 2 Replies to eric_michelle_2
      • you may want to explain why the guy raised the price target to 85 from 60 even with that 4 mm estimate.

      • well, first of all i like the challenge in your
        heres a way to try and get to a reasonable
        rdwr's mkt value is about $633mm as of the close
        look at ffiv, its mkt value is about $2660mm (fully
        ffiv's sales growth rate as seen in the last qtr
        released is roughly 4 times rdwr's.
        since no analyst is
        basing his valuation on earnings with these companies i
        contend that rdwr merits only 1/4 of ffiv's mkt cap only
        based on the sales growth parameter.
        that makes it
        about $665mm.
        lets go further in the analysis,
        rdwr is losing money and ffiv is making money already
        i contend that ffiv deserve a further premium over
        rdwr, furthermore, since analysts now expect only a 10%
        increase in sales from 3qtr 1999 to 4thqtr 1999 in rdwr ,
        i contend that that premium should be
        as any mkt maven will tell u, ffiv deserves further
        premium just on account of it being a larger cap
        stock(cant help it, theyre in vogue these days- i dont agree
        but i never fight the tape).
        i view a 33% discount
        as a fair one for these 3 items and thus i arrive at
        a fair mkt cap of
        $443mm for rdwr based on
        these assumptions and facts. that translates to roughly
        now, i truly believe the stock has been hyped
        dramatically ahead of earnings due to the blockbuster numbers
        posted by ffiv..everyone expected them to come with a
        huge number, certainly a profit and they did
        also, all the news about the deals with lucent etc. had
        been leaked long before the actual releases...all that
        generated a speculative bubble that burst the day the qtr
        results were released and has not mended itself
        the mkt over reacts to the upside and will over react
        to the upside too, thats why i believe the stock
        will continue to go down below my percieved fair value
        of 30...i will be buying more in the mid 20's and
        low 20's if the mkt(nasdaq) will over correct and
        flush out the poor shareholders that bought this thing
        out of pure hype.
        hope that answers your question

11.30-0.70(-5.83%)Jun 24 4:00 PMEDT