I found your msg. Very interesting and I like your marketing oriented thinking. I think that you have a point here and I agree with your long term scenario.
But I really think that the issue here is which company has the best product (second best close to the best is also good). Here is my point (please read it and tell me what you think):
The Client : Engineers. In this case the client are professional engineers and not the common consumer. For example everybody knows that for the best routers you should go to Cisco and most of them do that. For a dotcom it�s essential to keep the network online, or else face consequences.
The product : Is answering a real need. Making the network flat is and going to be an important issue. We can see the problems already today as we try to access AMZN or Yahoo, etc. As the Internet is only in the beginning, problems will get worse.
The Market : The market is growing so fast that both RDWR and FFIV have enough place for the next 10 years.
Cisco : Cisco don�t do R&D, they buy promising cos. In this case there in nothing to worry. The only thing Cisco could do is buying RDWR and make us rich.
In your msg., you are using case study from the consumption sector. This is a B2B sector.
Conclusions : 1) The company that have the best product (second best close to the best is also O.K.) will find a way to make big money. I don�t care how this company will do it, I just know that this company will do it. There is no doubts that RDWR>=FFIV. By the way RDWR is going out in January with a new version that will edge out once again competitors. 2) Since RDWR>=FFIV. They should be traded at very close prices. RDWR should go up 350% in order to reach the market cap. Of FFIV. She will do it. 3) In past MSG�s. I already stated why do I think she will do it in the short term.
say. Except with the idea that the company with the best product will find a way to win. I think history has shown that the best product can easily lose if the business model does not work. Even the internet can't change the fact that you must have a good business strategy. I think RDWR's business strategy is superior to FFIV's and so I think they should (and eventually will) be valued HIGHER than FFIV. I really do think we will see a valuation 1.5-2 times higher than FFIV. Why? RDWR has better market share already (14% of Information Management Technology Equipment, second only to CSCO with 44%) and from what I have seen RDWR's margins are better than FFIV's. These 2 things alone mean eventually RDWR will be worth more. How long it takes for the market to realize this is something I'm willing to wait and find out!
You make very good points. But I think the battle royal will not even begin for several years. The network mtg. market is so big and growing so fast that there is pletty of room at the present for FFIV, RDWR, and CSCO. Ultimately I think you're right about RDWR versus FFIV: Radware will win!
I have been watching for sometime, and it's interesting to see who shows up on these boards. I have been long since 28 1/2 and I have heard it all! The shorts (which there aren't that many of) claim that RDWR will lose based on market share(ie FFIV has more). Which is totally untrue. RDWR has 14% of the information management equipment market, second only to CSCO (who has 44%). RDWR already has more market share than FFIV! The longs claim that RDWR will win based on technology, which is a naive outlook at best(though you still come to the same conclusion because RDWR's technology is better too). It seems that, even here, you can be right for the wrong reasons. It's a wonder anybody makes any money at all in the stock market! But enough rambling, good luck, and as I have tried to make it my motto: BUY, HOLD, and GET RICH!