Even you have started your message by stating that I'm being rather unrealistic, I found myself more confident after reading your own estimates. Based on so many Company's releases, we both agree that new revenue growth record is expected. It might be 'only' $7.0M but $7.5M in revenues might be realistic too.(Talking on low-scale numbers, an increase by 50% is also realistic. See also growth rates of FFIV, selling in the same market) Now ,let's try to estimate earning by comparing to last Quartar: Q4 Q1 Sales 5.0 7.2 Gross Profit 4.2 5.7 Total operating expenses 4.4 5.3 Operating income -0.2 0.4 Financial income 0.7 1.0 Net income 0.5 1.4 Diluted EPS $.03 .08
I know nothing on their financial income, but having almost $130M in cash sould bring at least 1% in interest gains.
I am from Isreal and have friends that work at Radware. They are all top notch people and are very positive about radware's future. They are not selling their shares and are in fact recommending to all their friends (including me) to buy.
I took their advice and have been buying shares over the last two weeks. I don't plan to buy more but will sit on the couple thousand shares I own and check back in a year or two when I expect the stock price to be well over $100 a share.
I'm not sure I agree with your estimate of Operating income(losses actually increased from 98 Q4 to 99 Q4) but it's not out of the question. You are right about $7.0 being conservative. Revenue growth rate between 2Q 99 and 3Q 99 was 29%. Revenue growth rate between 3Q 99 and 4Q 99 was 39%. If the revenue growth rate continued in a linear fashion it could conceivably be 49% between 4Q 99 and 1Q 00. This would mean revenue of $7.5M as you stated. The question is how much of that becomes earnings. If it is 0.08 as you estimate we will crush not only this Q's expectations but also the whole year. Estimates only call for 0.11 EPS this entire year. 0.08 this Q could make analysts triple their estimates. Wow! Now you've got me eager! BUY, HOLD, GET RICH!