3rd qtr report - almost 30% incr in sales - which show that rdwr's market segment is still booming. that means: 1.when rdwr's publish its own report - probably in the middle of next week - there is no reason why it shouldn't also show such figures. and if the market will be positve we can expect it to go back to the 30ies 2. no big telecom giant can ignore such a growing segment. the only 2 major indy candidates left are f5 and rdwr. and as of today, rdwr's products are way ahead of the competition.
MERAVHON, its good to hear from you. this board became a very hostile place in the last few months.
yes, a 30% to 33% increase for shure. people keep forgeting that this company still sits on a very big pile of $$ in cash, and it is in the middle of a booming market. also, judging from the zisapel's past actions in other companies, rdwr is near the stage of maturing, i.e we can expect some m&a in the next 12-18 M.
I agree with your numbers. But I would like to add the following:
SSB states: "we expect a strong 3Q" they continue to say that they expect RDWR to exceed the estimates.
My analysis of this information is as follows;
Assuming a 30% increase in sales means $11M. this translates to a $2.5M sales increase which translates to additional profit margin of $2.1M (based on 84% cost of goods sold).
This $2.1 million less assumption of increased expenses of $1.575M (last Q increased by $1.5M) means additional net income of $525K which will mean very close to break even in operating income and an additional 3 cents EPS over the prior quarter($525K/17,000,000), or EPS of 10 cents for the quarter.
In my view your estimate of $.60 cents is fairly conservative. In order to earn 60 cents that is an average of 15 cents a quarter.
I believe that they should achieve the 15 cents already in Q1 of 2001. If they continue to grow in Revenues and Earnings during the year 2001 the 60 cents will be surpassed.
But then again, if you are discussing the analysts estimates, then your $.60 is probably close to what they will do. They are even more conservative than I am. And I am pretty conservative.
All of these estimates are assuming that they do not use the cash in the bank for any acquisition or some other purpose as these EPS assume the financial income which they are generating today. But if they do something dramatic with the money, than it is a different ballgame anyway...