The possible turnaround is not that
different from Best Buy. Both had inventory problems. Both
have thin margins. When Best Buy went to four it was
because of bad industry conditions (no new exciting
product) much like the sporting goods industry now. Both
also brought in new management. The best time to buy a
retailer is when it looks like they will go out of
business. TSA will survive while other will fall. This is a
20-30 stock in 2 years. Not a bad return. Stock is
being depressed by tax loss selling. Look for a bounce
to 7-8 range in Jan. I have not bought in yet
looking to enter under $5
is doing a good bit of business with National as
we speak. Brass Eagle had a good run up after an
article in IBD had some nice things to say about the
paintball industry. TSA would be wise to continue growing
with National and shrinking their Brass Eagle
selection. Brass Eagle is gouging prices at the mass market
level in hopes of warding off competitors. The funny
thing about it is the fasting growing segment in the
paintball industry is the upper end. Brass Eagle also moved
their paintball production in house and has had a
terrible time with inferior quality paint.
Assortments for the most part are close. Players
are Brass Eagle, Nat. Paintball Supply, Tippman,
Daisy and 3-4 other companies with better guns and
protective. Check out a Q report from Brass Eagle, public co.
up 2 pts. this week.
Retailer must court the
customer. Advertise and let them know they can find it at
your store. In most categories "avid" user will go to
the place where they believe is hip or just dirt
cheap - or both. In this case check yur local Army/Navy
store. They usually dominate this business. TSA is
considered neither. Also no rifles here that I have ever
WalMart is strong here because they are cheap and they
jumped on the category early. They also sell balls in
ZACKS,research report shows positive earnings for
year.. i will double check that though..
noticed in the new york times today some
authority properties being sold, and looks like some
to be rented as co tennants with sports authority
im not sure exactly what thoes deals entail..!!!!!
or are they all exiting. With respect to a
turnaround, the fundamentals of Best Buy and American Eagle
were quite different. You may be right, this may be a
turnaround or you may be wrong and this is a
liquidation...which is where I've heard its heading. The sneaker
business does not look profitable, especially without an
NBA season. I'ld have more confidence if I knew who
was leading the charge on the equity side.
This will be a great turnaround story a year out.
Their new CEO was the operating chief at one of the top
retailers in the country Staples. They will right the ship.
Thre best time to buy a retailer is when things look
awful, if you want proof look at a long term chart on
Best Buy (BBY) and American Eagle (AEOS). Both of them
had nventory problems and industry problems much like
what is affecting the sporting goods industry. Best
Buy went to 4 in 1997 now 51! and American Eagle went
to 2 in 1997 now 57! I am not saying Sports
Authority will go to 50 in a year but 20-30 is possible if
the can turn it around. Do your research on the new
CEO and you will agree.
I UNDERSTAND , company opened 10 new stores in
the third quarter, and 8 so far in the fourth, and a
new store thursday
in QUEENS NYC..
I looked at
ZACKS and notice positive earnings are
so is this going to be a sucessful turnaround
I will do more research before i take a
ANY, coments pro or con for this companies future