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Perceptron, Inc. Message Board

  • dickmilde dickmilde Sep 27, 2011 6:22 PM Flag

    The Terrible Twos

    Looks like the most probable residency for this stock over the next 4-6 months. And I thought I read it was likely going to $8, $10 or some absurd price like that. What a joke.

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    • I'll cede this much dickmilde, the stock is very close to its 52-week low and could be a victim of tax-loss selling right through year-end. Could close out the year in the $4s and have trouble holding $5.00 per share until sometime next year. Retail investors are ready to exit the market altogether (for a generation) given the volatility, and low priced small float stocks are vulnerable.

      • 1 Reply to roboklerk
      • Oct-Dec. is one of the best times to patiently accumulate shares in good companies that are trading divorced from fundamentals, due primarily to the tax tail wagging the dog. PRCP is one of those stocks to build upon when it trades under $5.00.

        I think management is smart enough to not let it trade near net working capital per share indefinitely and simply blame marekt volatility, all the while incurring the costs of being a public company. They know full well the technology, the patents, the production equipment, the backlog, and Helix are worth something in excess of working capital. If the public market does not value your company, and you are paying for that neglect, eventually you explore other options.

    • With $2.93 per share in cash, $4.68 per share in net working capital---the stock should be able to hold $4.50. Obviously some institution is working it lower, especially in the last half hour of trading when the company's share repurchase program is not in effect (if I recall correctly). PRCP should be able to run operations near cash breakeven even if the auto market declines pretty significanlty on a worldwide basis (which i doubt will happen).

      I think the trading in the stock could be affected by redemption calls for hedge and mututal funds for the end of 3Q. Those calls could be massive as a significant portion of the investment communithy chooses to de-risk in a big way. I bet some funds are selling a portion of every stock across the board, but that is just a guess.

 
PRCP
12.82+0.25(+1.99%)Mar 27 4:00 PMEDT