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  • peter_norths_proctologist peter_norths_proctologist Feb 13, 2014 3:04 AM Flag

    First half is history. Prepare the champagne room!

    Record backlog to be tapped in Q3 and Q4, followed by easy comps in FY'15 Q1 and Q2. That's 12 straight months of levity off a bearish wash-out. I'm buying blood in the streets knowing the worst is over.

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    • I would if the insiders were buying stock instead of selling.

      • 1 Reply to greendog03
      • greendog, I'd be less concerned by insider selling now and more concerned by seeing some big blocks sold today, more than what the COO still holds in total. That looks institutional, though it could be a high net worth individual I suppose. But a couple blocks approaching 30,000 and some small in the 10,000+ range may be a harbinger. Until now, while the decline has been significant and painful, it has not occurred on high volume but has been more of a lack of bids. Feels like someone big now is about to cry uncle, or at least trim a position significantly to a more palatable level (although I kind of think one is either all-in or zero on this type of a stock). I agree you can make a case the COO sales of half his stake was a trigger, or at least a warning sign of what was to come. In a small company, w/limited shares, the execs need to be very sensitive to the appearance they create when they sell such a big stake of their personal holdings. The former CEO didn't care about that nor does the current COO, but they should. A significant about of market cap has been destroyed. And no insider is stepping in to buy, are they?

    • Be careful, it just cracked w/a block sale at 12:30 pm. Nothing but air to $9. The COO sale was your red flag, and probably also the trigger for this whole decline that is not over yet.

    • but investors still want out ahead of this quarter, that seems clear.

    • Hey MF Man
      That's exactly correct, starting June 1st 2012 there has been no clearer buy signal than the days when Mark Hoefing COO has sold shares.

      • 1 Reply to carryjuk500
      • That's the right-headed analysis peter, directly from the last CC you are correct. One caveat, some of that expectation by management has to be predicated on the timely roll-out of some of that Helix order for the German manufacturer in March. Hopefully, the new CEO had some visibility re: the March delivery at the time of the CC. They cannot miss by a month, or even a few weeks, at least not to be able to bring home fiscal 3Q results.The market seems cautious to say the least. That may be opportunity knocking. I'll be watching call option volume the last week of April and first several days of May as a indicator of expectations for the 3Q results. I'll be watching put volume and pricing as well. After the last two quarters, the bias could be to buy protection just a few days ahead of earnings, if even one is "not worried about 3Q earnings". Unfortunately those options are not very liquid and I have little idea if they will look expensive or reasonable as regards premiums. It's just another thing to watch for clues.

 
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