About eight weeks ago Tim indicated he thought Terrestar would be bankrupt within weeks.
Then in September he said nothing about bankruptcy.
Now he seems confused like all of us on how Terrestar has managed with the finaces.
You can read it how you want, my take is that Tim doesn't really know what is going on with Terrestar (but who really does?), and he makes some comments that could lead one to believe that they could now try to hang on till August 2011. That is a big switch. A lot could happen in a year.
Poor Tim seems utterly lost. What he does not "get" is that the US government is prohibited from doing business with bankrupt companies. This is a fact. The only way that TSTR can do business, i.e. first responder business, with the Feds is if they stay out of Chapter 11.
Perhaps the Feds have other alternatives. GSAT. Skyterra. IRDM. None of these companies have functioning satellites capable of more than 9.6kbps. They can't send and receive mug shots, IP data or any other form of what we now consider normal Internet communications. Terrorists and criminals are eating the Feds donuts while they are asleep at the wheel.
Enter TSTR, the Genus phone and the 2GHz connectivity module offered by EB and TSTR. It changes everything. It allows a cop on the beat to send a picture of a drug suspect or a terrorist to anyone with a computer that needs to see it...perhaps an airport security guard.
Skyterra, IRDM and GSAT cannot do this. They certainly can't do it out in the wilds of Utah or the Texas panhandle. Only TSTR will have the technical capability to do this for the next year or so.
So, sure, TSTR could technically file a Chapter 11 petition. They would be unlikely to convince a BK judge that the spectrum is a valueless intangible. Spectrum valuations are everywhere. The Obama administration has a national broadband plan that includes Terrestar. Listen to the FCC commissioners if you doubt me.
Poor Tim clearly doesn't understand the market he has been covering. He certainly does not understand the pent up demand for nationwide ubiquitous satellite broadband coverage. He seems befuddled by last week's release of the Genus phone and the massive, high volume surge of TSTR stock. It remains to be seen whether he has been wrong all along, whether he was acting in good faith when he predicted a Chapter 11 filing. It remains to be seen whether the bashers here had reason on their side, or just a slanted, self-serving perspective on the facts.