I knew they would beat revenue (which they killed), but beating earnings by .01 was a nice surprise! I had a feeling that they would lower the div, but I thought they would wait until Q1'12. Still, I think overall this was a pretty solid quarter. The mark to market on the two older ships was a bit surprising as well, but I guess they decided to take a "big bath" this quarter and write off the bad debt and the ships. This just means that going forward the depreciation expense goes down.
I also was pleasantly surprised to see that they had not bought back that many shares. That means that all the large volume over the past two weeks was by investors. This also means that they will probably be buying tomorrow, so, while I do expect the price to dip tomorrow morning (as the rest of the sheep run for the door), I don't think it will stay under a $1 for long.
Like I have mentioned a number of times before, a 5% yield is way more attractive to the institutional investors as this is viewed as a secure, maintainable div (I'm not saying they couldn't maintain the 20% yield, but it just looked suspicious). I also think that they will raise the div in conjunction with the share price going forward to maintain that 5% yield.
Nice analysis. Company will be repurchasing at these prices with excess cash. They did repurchase at .98, so whatdya think they'd do at .95? My guess is that we will see prices above $1 in a few days as repurchases hit the tape.