No strong arguments about approval or denial, WHY???
odds are 10% approval.
Major concern is the view of RSL.? Is it such a bad desease that a drug regardless of side effects warrants the risks.. If XNPT shows a good case that their drug carries zero risk, than i think we get approval. But last year the fact that their drug caused cancer in a rat scared off the FDA.. My gut says FDA will want to see a bigger and longer trial to make sure the drug is safe..
Best way to play it is buy the april 5 puts and the april 10 calls. If the drug is approved xnpt should hit 35-30, if it is denied will go down to cash levels which is 3 a share, so you win either way.. good luck.
Seeking alpha projects a $1-$2 price appreciation in case of approval because of the earlier presence of DEPO in the market for RLS. Why, this board is than too optimistic about the price growth in case of approval? I see people stating it from $18-20 and as u said 30-35.
Sentiment in the market suggests a short sell whereas the price projections in case of approval scare to death to think of this strategy. Something is not clear..... Also I do not play options, so my position will either a short or long.
Realistically, the share price may appreciate to 12 to 14 after approval because RLS has a gigantic market and company has big name partners with enormous milestone payments.
With rejection, the price can come down to cash value of 3 or a bit higher such as 3.5 to 4. Shorter term fluctuates quite a bit after rejection. Also, the content of the CRL may mean life or death to the company since if CRL just asks for another animal trial, the indication is not yet done but if FDA issues the same kind of CRL as the first one, then the RLS indication is done for the drug.
well, the reason the options are priced so cheap has nothing to do where the stock will go on approval. The reason the call options are so cheap is its highly unlikely xnpt gets approved.. I gave it a 10% chance which is pretty bad.. Just play the 5 puts and the 10 calls and you should make money either way..
depo is in the system too long 24 hours for restless leg xnpt is 12 hours -you need to take this at night this drug will be better for restless leg depo not a good drug for that in the body too long needs to be when you are sleeping only