Should get one in the next couple of days with SBGI presenting at the Deutsche conference. I'm interested in seeing what the new annual cash flow number will be after the addition of the most recent purchase.
I was at the conference but missed their presentation. Met with management and a lot of the guys in this sector. Quite frankly not much is new, retrans continues to rocket up, they are sold out in regards to political, next year they are looking at core to be up 3-4%, so 2013 looks good, more M&A is coming as a matter of fact NXST said their are 2 companies that are on the block, and perhaps the most exciting is that mobile is here. If you have a certain Samsung phone you can get the broadcast signal in select markets. SBGI said they want tax clarity and will do a 1 time divi if they don't get it. If you guys have any other questions fire away, don't have my notes in front of me. I will say this, some of the analysts looking at these guys (I'm guessing for the first time) don't have a clue, they simply don't understand the opportunity and asked very poor questions, was obvious.
If you have not done so go read the financial presentation on the SBGI company site under investor relations. Under presentations, 2012.
Blended 2 year cash flow is 425 million with new additions. At just an 8 to 1 multiple the common stock should have a value of 17.25 per share. That is 8 to 1.
They also note retrans will triple in the next 3 years. This goes back to what I posted about a week ago. I'm seeing the new retrans numbers and they are scary good. If local and national just hold flat, which is very conservative, in the next 3 years you'll see so much value created by retrans alone. I have become a long term holder of SBGI due to retrans alone. I will add on dips and suck up the divy.
One additional thought on retrans. The greater share of our revenue that retrans becomes the greater stability our cash flow will have. Good or bad economy, the retrans is coming in as per contract. That number will soon be over 100 million per year, kind of softens any kind of economic shock.
Thank you for pointing me to their website. I too was a short term investor in SBGI. I noticed that I could catch 3-4% dips almost every other day and it was a great trading stock (and I think it still is). I've now switched perspectives and am in this for more of the long-term. I think the retrans and their stability has moved me in this direction. You are right, this could be rather defensive if the market turns south pending the "fiscal cliff" and other larger, macro concerns. I'm counting on a good report 10/31 and a good 4th quarter when all political ad revenue is tallied. I try not to make wild-eyed predictions about share price because I've proven myself wrong too much for my own liking, but I am hoping to see this around 14 at year's end. But, with a 5% divy i'm in regardless.