I'm not in SBGI at present but have been posting on SBGI since it went under $1. I have always liked it and made tons of money by trading/investing. In answer to a few questions raised today and recent days for SBGI and the sector........BLC set the negative tone with missing revenues. GTN followed by lowering guidance for Q4. SBGI today missed EPS expect with only 32 cents. The street was expecting 35 cents. They exceeded revenue expect by $7 million which SHOULD have increased EPS by at least 4 cents. SBGI should have earned at least 39 cents. The smart money when they started to analyze, realized that margins were not as high as projected and synergies from acquisitions not coming in as expected. I have always bet on SBGI because of the Smith family and their treating the company as their own personal ATM machine. I merely climbed aboard at opportune times.
When looking at SBGI today it holds attraction because by buying at today's closing price of $12.27, after receiving $1.15 in dividends by owning till 11-30-12, you will actually only have $11.12 invested as of 11-30-12 and with 60 cents dividend that's 5.4% on your money. I don't think you can lose at these prices. However, I would not be surprised to see SBGI drop to $11.50 range before dividend payout. I also think TVL will disappoint next week as well in one area or the other.I am waiting for lower entry point. DaninFW
Dan, note that their actual "operating" earnings were .36/share. One cent above ananlysts estimates. They had a one time charge of .04 due to debt restructuring, which ultimately will save them money in future quarters.
Also, I dont' think TVL will dissapoint. I think they'll be at the upper end of their forecast for 3rd quarter but the 4th quarter number will actually be guided much higher. The stock may sag after earnings, they all have so far. As usual the runup happenned before the news, sell the news type of thing. Any drop in SBGI from here and I'm buying more. Note my post below with next year's earnings. There will be no post election pause in growth for SBGI next year. This machine continues to grow until 1st quarter of 2015. I will be selling in Feb of 2015.
I will say it again, retrans growth is crazy over the next few years. Literally doubling in 3 years. I'm seeing contracts go from 20 cents to 1.00, 1.15, 1.30 overnight. The sooner the expiration date the sooner the growth happens. This is a long term hold if ever I've seen one.
I've said for months that SBGI and TVL will be the only two blowing away numbers in Q1 and Q2 2013. GTN also stated that networks are asking for 50% of retrans which will negate much of retrans gains in future years. I am concerned about digital and mobile and sectors ability to keep up with decline in viewership of younger generation......and myself for that matter as I love technology. Headline today was "analysts more excited about spectrum than broadcasters". The spectrum issue that many bet on may also be a non-event in the end.......until many years from now. I still love the sector and will play the ups and downs. Even with 36 cents, SBGI should have earned 39+ cents. Also, they borrowed the money to pay the dividend and SBGI is approaching $2 BILLION in debt which I don't like. The Smith's borrowed at 6%+ to keep from paying 35-38% taxes instead of 15%. They figured better to pay 6% and borrow the money instead of paying 20% extra in one year in taxes. they pulled much of their future cash flow IMVHO. DaninFW